Middle East Powder Keg Explodes! Crude Oil Surges Past $100, Is the Fed's Rate Cut Dream Shattered? Global Capital Flight Begins!

1. Opening Shock: Saudi Stock Market Crashes, Kuwait Suspends Trading Urgently [Taogu Ba]
Just now, a major bomb dropped in the Middle Eastern markets!
On March 1st, local time, the Saudi stock market (TASI) opened with a sharp plunge, dropping over 4% at the open, and still down nearly 2% at the time of writing. Nearby, the Kuwait Securities Exchange announced: trading is suspended from March 1st until further notice!
This scene is comparable to the circuit breaker during the 2020 pandemic!
Bitcoin also retreated from its high of $68,000 to $66,791, with risk assets collapsing across the board, and safe-haven sentiment instantly surging.

2. Strait of Hormuz: The “Throat” of Global Energy Being Choked
The most deadly variable has arrived—the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the latest news from Xinhua News Agency, Iran has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. Several oil tanker owners and traders have suspended oil, fuel, and liquefied natural gas shipments through this route. The German Shipowners Association bluntly states: the shipping industry is facing an “acute operational crisis”!
The international oil tanker flow monitoring system shows that the speed of oil tankers around the Strait of Hormuz has generally dropped to zero, and shipping has come to a halt!

Why is the market so panicked?

1. Iran produces 3.3 million barrels of crude oil daily, accounting for 3% of the global total—seems small
2. But about 20% of the world’s oil is transported through the Strait of Hormuz, with key suppliers like Saudi Arabia and Iraq relying on this route
3. Even without a full blockade, harassment and seizure of oil tankers alone are enough to push up freight rates and trigger supply fears

Barclays analysts warn: “Oil markets may face the worst situation next Monday (March 2), with Brent crude possibly surging past $100 per barrel!” This implies about a 35% increase. Note that Brent has already risen 20% this year; another 35% jump would be significant…

3. The Federal Reserve in a Deadlock: Rate Cut Expectations Completely Dismissed?
The chain reaction from soaring oil prices is choking the Fed’s room to cut interest rates.
Deutsche Bank warns: “The oil price shock is the main risk to the 2026 economic outlook.”
Many economists point out: if oil prices continue to rise sharply, US inflation will worsen further, and the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates this year could be entirely eliminated!

1. Boston College economist Brian Bethune: “The reasons supporting rate cuts are disappearing before our eyes”
2. Rising oil prices + Trump’s aggressive tariffs = double inflation shock
3. BMO Capital Markets’ chief US economist Scott Anderson is even more aggressive: if the conflict persists, the Fed might turn to rate hikes next!

Currently, derivatives markets still expect the Fed to cut rates twice this year (25 basis points in June and September), but evolving geopolitical risks could shatter these expectations. Goldman Sachs previously warned: if Iran maintains a long-term blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the worst-case scenario could see Brent crude soaring to $110 per barrel, sharply increasing recession risks in the US.

4. Gold: The Ultimate Safe Haven, New All-Time Highs in Sight?
“The cannon fires, gold gains thousands”—this old saying remains timeless.
Industry insiders suggest: if the US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, gold could become the global capital “ultimate safe haven,” with prices potentially hitting new highs! Currently, gold is already high, but under the catalyst of geopolitical conflict, breaking previous highs is only a matter of time. Meanwhile, US Treasuries will also benefit, as safe-haven sentiment pushes up prices and lowers yields.

5. Stock Market Strategy: Don’t Rush to Buy the Dip!
Wall Street veteran and Yardeni Research founder Ed Yardeni says: “If the S&P 500 drops on Monday morning and rebounds in the afternoon, we wouldn’t be surprised—geopolitical events often have fleeting impacts on stocks.”
But Barclays Bank clearly warns: “Don’t buy on dips!” “A prolonged war lasting several days or more—and catching investors off guard—should trigger more pronounced negative reactions. The risk-reward is not attractive. It’s not the time to buy when prices fall.” If the S&P 500 retraces more than 10%, that might be a good entry point. For now, it’s better to wait.
Historical experience shows: conflicts threatening oil supply often temporarily boost energy and defense stocks. This year, iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF has already gained 14%. As US-Iran tensions escalate, the defense sector is once again “raring to go.”

【Conclusion】The current market faces a triple hit:

1. Energy crisis—Strait of Hormuz blockade, oil surging past $100
2. Inflation resurgence—Fed rate cut expectations dashed or even reversed to hikes
3. Geopolitical risk—US-Iran escalation, global funds seeking safe havens
   Strategy: Gold, US Treasuries—safe havens; energy, defense—beneficiaries of conflict.
   US stocks—temporarily on hold, waiting for a 10%+ correction before considering positions.
   This weekend promises sleepless nights. On Monday, the global financial markets will face a tough battle!
   (The above is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry risks; invest cautiously.)

——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————Review

1. Market Sentiment Overview: Number of Limit-Up Stocks: 61
Consecutive limit-ups: 7 (Yunnan Energy Holdings)
Breakaway rate: Moderate
Profit-taking effect: ★★★★☆
The market cycle stocks are booming across all sectors, with metals, electricity, and chemicals leading the charge, and AI computing power remaining active. Funds are clearly shifting from high to low, moving from high-position themes to low-position cyclicals, with performance and price increases becoming the strongest drivers.

2. Chain of Limit-Up Stocks
Yunnan Energy Holdings with 7 limit-ups leads, driven by announcements and sentiment; caution advised.
Four-limit-up stocks include Jinyangda benefiting from phosphate fertilizer price hikes and US strategic material recognition.
Top chemical leaders: Gan Neng (electricity) vs. Zhangyuan Tungsten (metals).
High-quality cyclicals: covering computing power, power grids, gas turbines, etc.

3. In-Depth Analysis of Limit-Up Sectors

1. Nonferrous metals (19 stocks limit-up)—today’s strongest sector:
   3-limit-up: Zhangyuan Tungsten
   1-limit-up: Xianglu Tungsten, Baowu Magnesium, Oriental Zirconium, Xiamen Tungsten, China Tungsten High-tech, Tin Industry, Hunan Gold, Guoyan Platinum, Molybdenum Co., Baotai, Huaxi Nonferrous, etc.
   Core drivers: US plans to set reference prices for critical minerals like germanium, gallium, antimony, tungsten using AI models.
   Market interpretation: Prices of tungsten, tin, rare earths continue rising; resource dominance era arriving. China controls over 80% of global rare earth, tungsten, antimony capacity, giving it pricing power. US move reinforces scarcity perception.
   19 stocks limit-up today—the most among sectors—funds flowing in.
   Next week, after some differentiation, leaders may have room:
   Zhangyuan Tungsten (3-limit-up leader), Xiamen Tungsten (mid-tier), Tin Industry (trend).

2. Power and Grid (9 stocks limit-up)—“selling power” behind computing power:
   3-limit-up: Gan Neng
   2-limit-up: Huayin Electric, Shama Electric
   1-limit-up: Jinkai New Energy, Southern Power Grid, Min Dong Electric, Fuling Electric
   Core drivers: US President Trump to convene tech execs next week to pledge support for high-energy-consuming data centers’ power costs.
   Market interpretation: AI computing power = high electricity consumption. Externalizing data center power costs benefits power operators like Gan Neng (3-limit-up).
   Shama Electric (grid equipment) shows funds are extending into grid upgrades.
   Logical extension: Gas turbines (Changyuan Donggu, 2-limit-up)—backup power for distributed energy, essential for data centers.

3. Computing Power Sector (6 stocks limit-up)—domestic substitution accelerates:
   2-limit-up: Taijia Co.
   1-limit-up: Tuowei Information, Hanggang Co., Gaoxin Development, Litong Electronics, Yuntian Lifei
   Catalysts: DeepSeek V4 breaks norms, first adapted to Huawei Ascend, forming a domestic AI computing ecosystem.
   2026 expected to be the big year for domestic computing power; Huawei’s Ascend 950PR recently launched, surpassing US in AI call volume; four large models top global charts.
   Hetzner cloud service prices surged nearly 40%, overseas costs soar, domestic cost advantage highlighted.
   Market interpretation: Taijia Co. (power supply) becomes new hardware leader; old players like Tuowei, Hanggang rebound.
   Shift from thematic hype to performance validation; focus on companies with confirmed orders.

5. Chemical Sector (4 stocks limit-up)—Price hike logic continues
Limit-up tiers: 4-limit-up: Jinyangda; 1-limit-up: Sichuan Meifeng, Yuanli Technology, Cangzhou Dahuang
Dual drivers: US classifies elemental phosphorus and glyphosate as strategic materials; phosphate fertilizer prices exceed $700/ton.
BASF’s Korea TDI plant maintenance (2.25-3.15) tightens supply.
Market interpretation: Jinyangda (4-limit-up) leads chemical stocks, supported by phosphate fertilizer price hikes and spring planting demand.
Institutional funds heavily involved; trend likely to continue. Focus on phosphates, TDI, MDI, and other segments with rising prices.

6. Gas Turbines (3 stocks limit-up)—Backup power for data centers:
   2-limit-up: Changyuan Donggu
   1-limit-up: Shenke Co., Shenergy Gas
   Core drivers: Global gas turbine orders to jump from 60GW to 85GW in 2025, with over 1,000 units ordered—highest since 2011.
   Market interpretation: AI data centers require 24/7 power; gas turbines are ideal backup.
   Changyuan Donggu (engine parts) leads; power + gas turbines form a logical energy security combo.

7. AI Programming (3 stocks limit-up)—Huawei’s new move:
   Xinjuyou Network, Puyuan Information, Jindai
   Event catalyst: Huawei Cloud’s code AI beta launched on 26th, covering code generation and AI programming tech.
   Market interpretation: AI programming is key for AI application deployment; Huawei’s entry accelerates industry penetration.
   Small-cap software stocks; sustainability to be observed; initial arbitrage focus.

8. Photovoltaics (3 stocks limit-up)—New space PV story:
   Junda Co., GCL System Integration, Samsung New Materials
   Event catalyst: Chinese companies visiting SpaceX to discuss space PV cooperation.
   Market interpretation: Space PV = satellite power + space stations; huge long-term potential but no short-term earnings support; speculative theme, caution advised when chasing highs.

Disclaimer: This article is for personal review only and does not constitute investment advice. The stock market involves risks; invest cautiously.