Ding Long: "Preparing for a Rainy Day" to Forge China's Energy Resilience

The United States and Israel have been conducting military operations against Iran for over two weeks. As the world’s “energy reservoir,” the Middle East has fallen into intense geopolitical conflict, especially with the continuous disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to an unprecedented surge in international oil prices in recent years. In the context of short-term difficulties in alleviating global energy supply gaps and the severe economic impact caused by volatile oil prices, more and more countries and regions are preparing or have already taken emergency measures such as releasing strategic oil reserves to address the tricky “oil crisis.” At this time, some international public opinion, including mainstream U.S. media, has noticed China’s “relative composure” amid the current “global energy panic” and has begun to explore the reasons behind this resilience.

As some analyses suggest, China has long been “planning ahead” on energy security issues, which has laid the foundation for its confidence in facing global energy market turbulence. Since 1993, China has transformed from a net oil exporter to a net importer, with oil imports increasing year by year. At least three oil crises since the 1970s have shown that when geopolitical risks intensify or conflicts break out, the international energy market—especially the oil and natural gas supply chains—often bears the brunt. Many times, energy issues are politicized and weaponized. In response to this reality, coupled with the country’s resource endowment of “rich in coal, poor in oil, and scarce in gas,” China has placed great importance on energy development and security in strategic planning and practical implementation.

In recent years, China has worked to stabilize domestic crude oil production and replenish strategic oil reserves, steadily enhancing energy supply security. Data shows that by 2025, China’s energy self-sufficiency rate will have reached over 80%. Crude oil production remains stable at around 200 million tons, natural gas production has increased by over 10 billion cubic meters for eight consecutive years, coal capacity is reasonably sufficient, and power generation capacity exceeds 3.7 billion kilowatts. Media estimates suggest that even if oil imports from the Middle East are interrupted, China’s oil reserves could cover supply gaps for several months.

Moreover, as China accelerates the expansion of international energy cooperation, its diversification and balancing of energy imports continue to advance. Currently, four major oil and gas import strategic channels—Northwest, Northeast, Southwest, and offshore—along with five major oil and gas cooperation zones—Central Asia-Russia, Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and Asia-Pacific—have been established and further consolidated. By 2025, Chinese companies’ overseas oil and gas rights and production are projected to reach an equivalent of 196 million tons, operating over 200 oil and gas investment and cooperation projects in more than 60 countries and regions worldwide. The country’s capacity to secure overseas oil and gas resources continues to strengthen.

Additionally, the green and low-carbon transition is increasingly significant for China’s energy security. China has built the world’s largest and fastest-developing renewable energy system. By the end of October 2025, renewable energy installed capacity reached 2.22 billion kilowatts, accounting for 59.2% of the total power capacity nationwide. Hydropower, wind power, and solar power installations all rank first in the world. Nuclear power capacity in operation and under construction has also risen to the top globally. The rapid growth of renewable energy generation has a clear positive impact on enhancing China’s autonomous control over its energy supply system, making China more resilient amid international oil and gas supply tensions and price fluctuations.

Energy is a vital foundation and driver of modernization. Energy security relates to the overall development of China’s economy and society; it is a matter of national importance and people’s livelihood, and cannot be overlooked. Thanks to long-term efforts in strategic planning and practical implementation, China has basically formed a multi-source energy supply security system driven by coal, oil, gas, nuclear, and renewable energy.

In the current context of intense global energy market turbulence, international public opinion is paying attention to and exploring how China has “planned ahead” on energy security issues. It should also be recognized that these efforts and the resilience they create contribute to the international community’s ability to cope with rising oil prices and to maintain the momentum of global economic recovery.

On one hand, as a major new energy country and power in the world today, China exports 80% of the world’s photovoltaic modules and 70% of key wind power components. The export of these “new three” products objectively promotes the development and application of new energy technologies worldwide, especially empowering many developing countries in the Global South to leapfrog into low-carbon development. On the other hand, according to the usual supply and demand transmission mechanisms, soaring international oil prices often lead to increased global inflationary pressures, slowed growth, and major currencies facing policy dilemmas. As the world’s largest manufacturing country and the so-called “world’s factory,” China strengthening its energy security not only helps resist potential imported inflation but also leverages its position as a global supply chain hub to stabilize international consumer markets, objectively contributing to curbing global inflation and promoting worldwide economic recovery. (Author: Professor at Shanghai International Studies University’s Middle East Research Institute)