Forbes: Does Quantum Technology Threaten the Encryption Industry? But It’s More Likely an Opportunity

Original title: Quantum Advances Are An Opportunity For Crypto

Original author: Sean Stein Smith, Forbes

Original translation: Saoirse, Foresight News

Right now, the crypto industry is already struggling to keep up amid a swirl of public-opinion controversies, geopolitical conflicts, and financial turmoil. And Google’s latest research is adding a new challenge to this field: the deployment timeline for practical quantum computing is being pushed forward continuously.

For years, the potential threats posed by quantum computing have been discussed, debated, and studied through research articles, and blockchain developers have long been working on post-quantum cryptography. But what is truly shaking up the investment market is the pace of technological iteration. Google’s Quantum AI team notes that quantum computers need fewer than 500k qubits to break the elliptic-curve cryptography algorithm used by Bitcoin—an encryption method long regarded as having the highest level of security. Leaving aside the technical parameters of qubits, the key fact is that: the latest estimates place the required number of qubits far below prior expectations, effectively moving the “life-or-death exam” timeline for the blockchain ecosystem up to 2029.

In addition to the possibility that Bitcoin could expose a security vulnerability in as little as 9 minutes, another report also focuses on the risks facing Ethereum. The network has up to 5 potential attack vectors; once exploited, it would put at risk roughly $100 billion worth of DeFi and tokenized assets.

It is important to note that the quantum computers mentioned in these research reports have not truly arrived yet; they remain theoretical for now. But the ensuing discussion has already driven double-digit growth for tokens and protocols that incorporate post-quantum characteristics. Furthermore, tokens regarded as “quantum-adaptable,” along with more advanced protocols such as zero-knowledge proofs, have also benefited in this wave of attention.

Setting aside speculative sentiment and panic-driven rallies, as quantum technology continues to penetrate more broadly into financial markets, investors should recognize a few key experiences and takeaways.

Quantum risk is no longer confined to the theoretical realm—this is actually a good thing

Against the backdrop of discussions about quantum computing and cryptocurrencies, the conversation has shifted from abstract risks to measurable, real threats.

New research shows that quantum systems may only need between 10k and 26k qubits to break the cryptographic standards widely used today, a major drop from the previously estimated scale of millions. More importantly, the attack scenarios are no longer hypothetical. Researchers have outlined certain attack methods: private keys can be extracted from ongoing transactions within minutes, and funds can even be transferred before a transaction is confirmed.

This reality forces investors, audit institutions, and policymakers to redefine the core of the problem: risk is no longer simply whether “quantum computing will ever emerge,” but whether existing systems can migrate to post-quantum cryptography fast enough. Some estimates suggest that “quantum nodes” could arrive as early as 2029, meaning the industry’s window to respond is now shorter than the upgrade cycle for most financial infrastructure.

From a practical perspective, the market is facing a classic accounting and valuation dilemma: it must recognize and assess those obligations before they can turn contingent liabilities into actual losses.

The market is pricing in the quantum transition ahead of time

Although underlying threats are still gradually becoming visible, market behavior shows that participants are not waiting for clarity. Tokens and projects built around anti-quantum features have surged to nearly 50%—indicating that capital is positioning itself defensively in advance via infrastructure and related projects.

This is a common pattern in financial markets: investors often bake structural risks into prices before they truly materialize. In the current context, this means capital will flow toward anti-quantum cryptography technology, upgraded blockchain protocols, and participants focused on security buildouts in this area.

Meanwhile, despite increasingly clear warnings, prices of mainstream crypto assets remain relatively stable. This reflects a market consensus forming: this transformation will be carried out through protocol-layer upgrades, rather than the industry collapsing.

For professionals in accounting and auditing, this introduces a new dimension to valuation analysis. Digital assets not only have to face market volatility and regulatory changes, but also bear the risk of technological obsolescence—risks like these must be disclosed, modeled, and stress-tested.

The crypto industry is unlikely to disappear, but the underlying architecture will be rebuilt

Even though the warnings are growing more urgent, the overall conclusion from various studies and industry commentary is unequivocal: quantum computing will not overturn the blockchain, but will force it to rebuild its security architecture. Recent analysis has identified multiple attack paths, including both fast exploitation targeting vulnerabilities at the transaction layer and slow attacks targeting dormant wallets whose keys have already been exposed.

At the same time, ongoing research in the post-quantum cryptography space indicates that workable mitigation solutions already exist, though the level of adoption and deployment remains uneven.

Most importantly, any observer, investor, or policy advocate can demonstrate: blockchain systems are not set in stone. Protocol upgrades, hard forks, and cryptographic algorithm migrations have long been part of how the ecosystem operates. Compared with traditional financial infrastructure, this adaptability itself is a structural advantage.

Quantum computing does not bring a fatal flaw—it brings a forced opportunity to move forward. The ultimate winners will not be those trying to avoid risk, but those driving the transition to become real, embedding anti-quantum capabilities into governance, information disclosure, and technical design before the threats fully surface.

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