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#Gate广场五月交易分享 As the exchange reserves drop to a seven-year low, 270K BTC whales net buying compresses circulating float—Is $80K support or a trap?
The US spot Bitcoin ETF has recorded nine consecutive days of net inflows, accumulating about $2.7B, with a single-day inflow of $629M on May 1st being one of the strongest daily data in 2026. The core significance of this liquidity event is not optimism in sentiment, but structural supply compression: each ETF net inflow is essentially authorized participants buying BTC from the spot market and transferring it to the issuer for custody, with the assets immediately exiting tradable circulating supply, combined with the fact that exchange reserves of BTC have fallen to their lowest since December 2017, at 2.21 million BTC. The key contradiction in today’s market is not the direction, but whether the price can be sustained by continuous spot trading volume support amid extremely compressed floating supply, or if this rally has already exhausted the short-term squeezing space.
On the external liquidity side, macro pressure has not dissipated but has eased marginally. US Secretary of State Blinken’s statements on the military situation in the Strait of Hormuz have driven the dollar and oil prices lower, with BTC rebounding to $81,600. This indicates that BTC’s current short-term correlation with the dollar index remains significantly negative. However, this correlation is inherently fragile—cryptocurrency markets have a 30-day correlation coefficient of up to 84% with the S&P 500 and 87% with gold. This is not an asset decoupling but an amplifier of macro sentiment. On the stablecoin front, the total market cap of stablecoins reached a historical peak of $315-316B in Q1 2026. Capital has not left but remains defensively parked within dollar-pegged instruments, providing ammunition for subsequent rotations, but at this moment, there are no signs of large-scale reallocation from stablecoins to spot BTC.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF has recorded nine consecutive days of net inflows, accumulating about $2.7B, with a single-day inflow of $629M on May 1st being one of the strongest daily data in 2026. The core significance of this liquidity event is not optimistic sentiment, but structural supply compression: each ETF net inflow is actually authorized participants buying BTC from the spot market and transferring it to the issuer for custody, causing the assets to exit tradable circulating supply. Coupled with the exchange reserves dropping to the lowest since December 2017, at 2.21 million BTC, the market's core contradiction today is not the direction, but whether the price can be sustained by continuous spot trading volume support amid extremely compressed floating supply, or if this rally has already exhausted the short-term squeezing space.
On the external liquidity side, macro pressure has not dissipated but has marginally eased. US Secretary of State Blinken's statements on the military situation in the Strait of Hormuz pushed the dollar and oil prices lower, with BTC rebounding to $81,600, indicating that BTC's current short-term correlation with the dollar index remains significantly negative. However, this correlation is inherently fragile — the 30-day correlation coefficient between the crypto market and the S&P 500 is as high as 84%, and 87% with gold. This is not an asset decoupling but an amplifier of macro sentiment. On the stablecoin front, the total market cap of stablecoins in Q1 2026 reached a historic peak of $315-316B, indicating capital has not exited but remains defensively anchored in dollar-pegged instruments. This provides ammunition for subsequent rotations, but at this moment, there are no signs of large-scale reallocation from stablecoins to spot BTC.