#GateSquareMayTradingShare

Bitcoin Stagnates at US$82,000 as US Buyers Have Been Absent Since October

Bitcoin Price
BTCUSD
continues to be held near US$82,000, and in fact, the chart is not the main cause. The main cause stems from the US buyer base that has been absent since October.

The chart looks ready for a rally. There are bullish EMA crossover signals indicating a pattern similar to the one that yielded 10.72% in April. The challenge lies at a key chart level, as one group of buyers continues to sell every time the price tries to be absorbed back.

EMA 50-Day and 100-Day Crossover Repeats April’s 10.72% Pattern

The daily Bitcoin chart shows four stacked exponential moving averages
E
EMA
that are tightly packed.

The 20-day EMA is at US$78,805, the 50-day EMA at US$76,016, and the 100-day EMA at US$76,538. The 200-day EMA is at US$82,020, which is the nearest resistance. EMA itself is a weighted moving average that responds faster to recent prices compared to the simple average.

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Currently, the 50-day EMA is almost touching the 100-day EMA, with the gap narrowing each day. This bullish crossover potential could occur within days. This setup is important because, at the end of April, there was a tension between the 20-day EMA and the 100-day EMA. After that crossover, Bitcoin’s price moved up by 10.72% over the following weeks.

The main challenge is at the 200-day EMA. Bitcoin already tried to reclaim the 200-day EMA last weekend but failed. The attempt on May 6 resulted in a quick reversal. The effort on May 10 experienced the same.

Until the 200-day EMA shifts from resistance to support, this EMA crossover setup of the 50-day and 100-day will only be a setup without a trigger. So, what is preventing the bulls from completing this rally? The answer is found in on-chain data.

Funding Rate and Coinbase Premium Both Signal Bearish Pressure from the US Market

Bitcoin’s funding rate has changed pattern over the past three months. From May 2025 to the end of January 2026, the majority of funding rates were positive, indicating dominance of long positions.

However, since late January, the situation has changed. CryptoQuant data shows that the funding rate has been more often negative over the past approximately 90 days. The latest data on May 10 is at -0.0031%. During this cycle, it also approached -0.02%, which is the deepest negative level during that period.

Funding rates below -0.01% indicate a very strong short dominance, with leverage concentrated on the bearish side. Conversely, this density could reduce downward pressure and increase the risk of a short squeeze if the price holds.

In the spot market, the story is similar but started earlier. Coinbase Premium Index measures the price difference between Coinbase and other major exchanges. A positive premium indicates US buyers are willing to pay more. A negative premium indicates US sellers dominate.

Since late October 2025, the premium has almost always been negative. The atmosphere is dominated by red, with only brief short-lived green spikes.

Six months of negative readings mean US spot demand is absent or even negative. Usually, this demand is a key factor during Bitcoin’s rally. Without this support, every rebound attempt will always be met with supply from the same group.

This indicator briefly turned positive on May 5 (just before the attempt to reclaim the 200-day EMA). However, on May 6, it turned negative again, and the price was rejected from the EMA.

Timing is quite important. Coinbase Premium turned negative about three months before the funding rate changed. The weakening spot market signals earlier than the derivatives market, not the other way around. If Coinbase Premium turns positive again, it indicates institutional demand from the US is starting to return. Until now, the price chart has been working alone without that support.

Bitcoin Price Must Break US$82,000 to Open the Path to US$90,450

With the 200-day EMA still acting as resistance, Bitcoin’s price must break through US$82,020 cleanly. The new higher level will only be valid after that.

Volume tells part of the story. Since April 13, daily volume has tended to decline even as the price slowly rises. This decreasing participation is one of the reasons every rebound attempt fails.

The next test above the 200-day EMA is at US$83,608, the Fibonacci level 0.236. If this level is broken, the 200-day EMA will no longer hold back the price movement. After that, the path opens to US$86,223 and US$88,336.

If it breaks above US$88,336, then US$90,450 or Fibonacci 0.618 becomes the next major resistance, which we also highlight in the crypto market review.

Downward, US$79,381 becomes the nearest support. If broken, US$74,903 is the next horizontal floor. Losing US$74,903 could lead to a deeper test toward US$70,493.

Bitcoin’s price is in a tight pattern. The 200-day EMA, Coinbase Premium, and funding rate all need to turn green together before a meaningful rise. If it rises above US$82,020 without US-based buyers, the risk of failure like on May 6 and May 10 could recur.

US$82,020 becomes the boundary between a potential 10.72% rally and the possibility of falling back to US$74,903 if selling volume reappears.