tonight's Federal Reserve decision is about to be announced, but what the market really cares about isn't so much the question of "will they cut rates"—the focus is on what kind of future roadmap Powell will lay out.

What if a dovish signal is released? A 25 basis point cut is just the beginning, the key is whether there will be continued easing afterward. In this case, the dollar is likely to weaken. Think about it: deposit interest rates drop, bond yields also decrease, making holding gold particularly cheap. Funds are likely to flow into precious metals, and the $4250 level might even be broken.

But if there is a "hawkish rate cut" scenario—appearing to cut rates on the surface but emphasizing that inflation hasn't been tamed yet and that rate cuts might need to be paused in the future—the market might play out the classic "expected move and then retreat" script. Previously positioned long traders might turn around and run; if gold prices pull back, whether $4100 can hold is uncertain.

Ultimately, it still depends on whether the "rate cut roadmap" drawn by the Fed is sufficiently dovish. Even if it meets expectations, without any additional surprises, the risk of profit-taking and subsequent adjustments should be watched carefully.