#美联储降息 A stablecoin sector and the valuation of related listed companies are indeed topics of much debate at the moment. Supporters and skeptics alike have strong opinions, each with their own logical basis.

Optimists are essentially betting on the long-term penetration of the crypto ecosystem. They believe stablecoins will gradually evolve into a crucial bridge between traditional finance and on-chain worlds, forming the infrastructure layer of the entire ecosystem. As for how much money can be made now or whether it can justify current valuations, frankly, that’s not their main concern.

The logic of the pessimists is also quite straightforward: the profit model is too simplistic, competition will only intensify, and players like Tether have already secured an absolute advantage.

Honestly, the so-called "compliance advantage" may not necessarily build a moat in the long run. The compliance you achieve now will eventually be matched by well-funded institutions. Once compliance shifts from a rare capability to a basic threshold, its support for company valuations will decline sharply.

My personal view is as follows:

If you truly believe in the future development of the crypto ecosystem, then assets like stablecoins can indeed be involved from a logical perspective. But there is one prerequisite—prices must be reasonable.

Starting from the $100 to $200 range, there have always been people trying to hype the market, creating a momentum like "if you don’t get on board, you’ll be left behind by the times." And what’s the result? Less than a month after opening, the price once surged close to $300. The market cap of a stablecoin operator actually exceeded the size of the stablecoins they issue and manage. This isn’t based on fundamentals anymore; it’s clearly driven by emotions and imagination manipulating the entire pricing.

During the drop to $64, technically, such a large decline naturally makes a rebound plausible. But to quickly retake previous highs in the short term? Honestly, I think it’s unlikely. More time will be needed to digest these bubbles.

Don’t talk about stories of future multiples. Even just returning to previous highs would require a 2 to 3-year cycle, assuming the crypto industry itself remains healthy and new narratives keep emerging.

Investing has never been a test of faith. At its core, it’s a tug-of-war between price, momentum, and market expectations. Believing in a sector or a token doesn’t mean you should rush in at any price.

So, from where I stand now, I’m not in a hurry. $BTC $ETH $SOL