December US non-farm employment data just came out — only 64,000 new jobs added. This number is quite striking. The previous month was also just 60,000, two consecutive months of weakness. Compared to the normal range of 200,000-300,000 over the past two years, the gap is significant. Market reaction has been quite direct: this indicates the labor market is cooling rapidly.

With the data released, everyone immediately started speculating about the Federal Reserve's next moves. After all, the Fed has consistently treated full employment as an important reference point for rate cuts. With employment this weak now, rate cut expectations have naturally been reactivated. Following this logic, the dollar could weaken, bond yields could fall, gold could rise, and risk assets like cryptocurrencies would also benefit from improved liquidity.

But there's a detail we can't overlook. Subsequent wage data is equally critical — if wage growth also slows down, the rate cut narrative becomes even more compelling. However, if wages remain elevated, we're caught in a contradiction: weak employment but strong inflation resilience, which might actually make the Federal Reserve more hesitant. Also don't forget that winter itself is easily disrupted by seasonal factors. This single report has limited explanatory power. We really need to wait until January to determine whether this is a trend or just short-term volatility.

For traders, this report can certainly shake market expectations and potentially push up valuations of risk assets like cryptocurrencies. But we also need to watch out for one trap: the market may have already front-run rate cut expectations. If subsequent CPI data doesn't cooperate and Federal Reserve policy changes course again, the cost of disappointed expectations could be significant.

Simply put, weakening employment data is a signal, but not the whole signal. The truly ideal scenario is employment weakness accompanied by simultaneous cooling inflation. We've achieved the first part now; the key is whether inflation cooperates. Cryptocurrencies may have short-term opportunities, but volatility is never small. Ordinary investors shouldn't get swept away by expectations of "massive stimulus." Focus on subsequent data and the Federal Reserve's actual stance.