Bitcoin in 2026 is no longer a simple rebound from the bear market's end.

From a technical perspective, there have indeed been some repair signals recently, and we can be cautiously optimistic in the short term. However, if we zoom out and look at the structure, the conditions to support a truly sustained bull market are not yet sufficiently in place. Historical data tells us that once the price breaks through the annual moving average, it often enters a more difficult zone. Combined with weakening incremental capital inflows and slowing capital influx speed, this cycle appears to be entering a phase that tests stock selection ability and trading discipline.

**Super Mega Whales Are Quietly Reducing Positions**

On-chain data provides very interesting signals. Long-term holders are distributing positions in a rhythmic manner. After Bitcoin spot ETFs launched in early 2024, those super mega whales did increase their buying when prices pulled back in early 2024. However, starting from October 2024, their stance suddenly shifted — from "adding positions" to "reducing positions."

Cumulatively, this group has already dumped approximately 61 billion dollars worth of bitcoin. Over the past 30 days, they continue net selling. It sounds like they're distributing, but looking closely, it's actually quite different — these selling pressures have been mostly absorbed by medium-sized whales, so the market performs as high-level oscillations rather than sudden collapse.

Compared to the 2021 spring top, when there was indiscriminate panic selling back then, this reduction is much more orderly — which is the standard move for mature capital at the cycle's end. In that sense, it also hints that Bitcoin has at least entered the cyclical top zone.

Incremental capital is clearly weakening, and prices are near key support levels. At this moment, precise selection and strict execution of trading plans may be more important than blind position additions.