Tom Lee Reiterates His Bullish Bitcoin Outlook: Can BTC Hit a New All-Time High by Late January 2026? Risks and Realistic Scenarios

Recent Bitcoin price performance and market sentiment

The price of Bitcoin has recently been fluctuating at a high level, attracting the attention of institutions and public investors. It once approached $94,000 but then experienced a pullback, indicating that the market is still searching for a clearer direction.

This overall high-level fluctuation often occurs in the later stages of a bull market—where there is both profit-taking pressure and the strength of long-term funds continuing to position themselves.

Tom Lee’s core prediction for the market in 2026

Tom Lee stated in an interview that he believes Bitcoin has not yet peaked and may reach new highs before the end of January 2026. He emphasized that the market should not be considered to have peaked and stated that the long-term trend remains bullish.

Lee’s judgment is primarily based on the following supporting points:

• The macro liquidity environment may be favorable for crypto assets;
• Institutional funds are entering the market in various ways.
• The traditional “4-year cycle” theory may be broken.

Fundstrat report vs Tom Lee’s different perspective

The internal research belonging to Fundstrat, however, provides a different expectation: an internal report suggests that Bitcoin may drop to $60,000-65,000 in the first half of 2026. This difference does not imply that one is “wrong” and the other is “right,” but rather reflects a different emphasis on time frames and risk management.

• Lee focuses on long-term trends and macro structures;
• The internal risk team is more focused on short-term price fluctuations and potential corrections.

Stone from other mountains: Predictions for Bitcoin by other institutions in 2026

Not only Tom Lee and Fundstrat, but different institutions also have diverse views on Bitcoin’s price in 2026. For example, some institutions predict that Bitcoin could reach a target range of $143,000 in 2026, which aligns with Tom Lee’s mid-term prediction logic.

This diverse prediction indicates that market consensus is still forming, and different outcomes may occur under different scenarios.

Bull Market Logic and Possible Turning Point Signals

If Bitcoin really reaches a new high at the end of January 2026, several key factors may drive this outcome:

• Liquidity easing brings risk asset chasing
• Investors’ expectations for improved regulatory transparency
• The proportion of institutional investment has significantly increased.

Potential turning point signals include:

• Sudden macro tightening policy
• Main ETF or regulatory product outflow
• The technical analysis has significantly breached key support levels.

How to determine if a prediction is likely to be achieved?

For the feasibility of the predicted implementation, investors may consider the following perspectives:

• Fundamental changes: for example, ETF fund flows, changes in regulatory policies;
• On-chain data indicators: such as long-term holder trends and changes in large holder positions;
• Market sentiment indicators: Fear and Greed Index and others reflect market sentiment.

Through these indicators, trends can be assessed more objectively than with a single prediction.