Gate Research: Options Expiry Hits Record High, Short-Term Market Volatility May Intensify

Options Market Dynamics

Latest data show that BTC implied volatility has fallen to 43%, while ETH IV has declined to 67%, both continuing to trend lower compared with last week. Based on the current volatility term structure and market sentiment, the downward trend in IV may still have some room to extend.

From a skew perspective, BTC 25-delta skew across maturities has shifted upward and converged, currently clustering around −4 vol. The put–call IV spread continues to narrow, with the most pronounced recovery seen in short-dated tenors such as 7D, where the rebound has exceeded that of mid- and long-term maturities. This indicates a cooling of short-term downside hedging demand.

ETH skew, by contrast, remains upwardly divergent: short-dated tenors have converged and edged higher, while long-dated skew remains stable in the −1 to −2 vol range with minimal fluctuation, suggesting that medium- to long-term downside risk expectations remain relatively stable.

BTC’s volatility risk premium (VRP) remains negative and has further widened to around −11 vol, indicating that future volatility is being underpriced by the options market, with limited demand for long volatility and selling pressure dominating. For ETH, both implied and realized volatility have declined in tandem, with VRP hovering in a narrow range around −3 vol, suggesting that current option pricing is broadly aligned with realized volatility and that short-term volatility expectations are relatively neutral.

Block Trade Structures

In the BTC and ETH options markets this week, block trades were primarily concentrated in bearish calendar spread structures. The largest block trades were as follows:

• BTC: Buy BTC-261225-92000-C and sell BTC-261225-85000-P, with a total size of approximately 775 BTC and a net premium outlay of about USD 3,800.
• ETH: Buy ETH-020126-2950-C, with a total size of approximately 7,250 ETH and a net premium outlay of about USD 890,000.

Platform Update

Gate has exclusively launched a simplified options trading tool—the recurring sales strategy—designed to help users automatically and continuously sell options over a predefined cycle. Users can customize execution by Delta or Strike, select expiries (T+1 / T+2 / T+3), define pricing methods, position size, and optional take-profit and stop-loss parameters. The strategy automatically opens positions daily at 09:00 (UTC) and seamlessly rolls into the next cycle upon expiry, enabling fully automated execution. The product also provides clear risk metrics, margin estimates, and projected trade paths, helping users manage and monitor strategy execution more intuitively.

Recurring Sales Strategy product guide: https://www.gate.com/help/other/options/48493