Has 90% of the Bitcoin bear market already passed?

Author: Matt Crosby

Translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

The end of the Bitcoin bear market may come sooner, as the golden ratio has fallen below the 350-day moving average and reached a key Fibonacci support level. The current area is an accumulation zone.

Bitcoin has struggled to maintain a consistent correlation with gold, recently moving in tandem only during market downturns. However, if we look at Bitcoin’s price from the perspective of gold rather than the US dollar, we can gain a more comprehensive understanding of the current market cycle. By measuring Bitcoin’s real purchasing power relative to comparable assets like gold, we can identify potential support levels and judge when the bear market cycle might end.

Breaks Key Support, Bitcoin Bear Market Officially Begins

When Bitcoin fell below the 350-day moving average at around $100,000 and the key six-figure psychological level, it effectively entered bear market territory, and the price immediately dropped around 20%. From a technical analysis perspective, breaking below the “Golden Ratio Multiplier” moving average is usually seen as a signal for a bear market, but it gets more interesting when priced in gold rather than dollars.

Figure 1: BTC falling below the 350-day moving average has historically coincided with the start of bear markets.

Bitcoin’s performance against gold is markedly different from its performance against the US dollar. After peaking in December 2024, Bitcoin has fallen over 50% against gold, while the dollar-denominated peak occurred in October 2025, far below the previous year’s high. This discrepancy suggests that Bitcoin may have entered a bear market much earlier, and for longer, than most people realize. Looking back at Bitcoin’s historical bear market cycles priced in gold, we can see that the current pullback may be approaching a key support zone.

Figure 2: When priced in gold, BTC broke below the 350-day moving average as early as August.

The 2015 bear market cycle bottomed after an 86% drop over 406 days; the 2017 cycle lasted 364 days with an 84% drop; the previous bear cycle saw a 76% decline over 399 days. As of this analysis, Bitcoin priced in gold has fallen 51% over 350 days. Although the percentage drop has been shrinking as Bitcoin’s market cap grows and more capital flows in, this mainly reflects increased institutional participation and reduced Bitcoin supply, rather than a fundamental change in cycle patterns.

Figure 3: BTC’s performance in gold terms suggests this bear market may be 90% complete.

Multi-Cycle Indicators Show Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom Is Near

Besides observing drops in price and duration, Fibonacci retracement levels spanning multiple cycles provide more precise insights. By using Fibonacci tools from historical cycle bottoms to tops, clear level overlaps can be seen.

Figure 4: Bear market bottoms in past cycles have aligned with key Fibonacci retracement levels.

In the 2015-2018 cycle, the bear market bottomed at the 0.618 Fibonacci level, corresponding to about 2.56 ounces of gold per Bitcoin; the 2018-2022 cycle bottomed exactly at the 0.5 level, about 9.74 ounces of gold per Bitcoin. In the subsequent bull market, the latter became a key resistance-turned-support level.

Converting Gold Ratios to US Dollar Price Targets

From the last bear market low to this bull market high, the 0.618 Fibonacci level corresponds to about 22.81 ounces of gold per Bitcoin, and the 0.5 level to 19.07 ounces. The current price sits between these two, which may form an ideal accumulation zone from a purchasing power perspective.

Figure 5: Using Fibonacci levels to forecast BTC/gold lows, then converting to US dollar prices, can help infer Bitcoin’s possible bottom area.

Fibonacci levels from different cycles show multiple overlaps: in the current cycle, the 0.786 level (about 21.05 ounces of gold) corresponds to roughly $89,160 per Bitcoin; the previous cycle’s 0.618 level again points to the $80,000 area. If it falls further, the next key technical target is around $67,000, corresponding to the 0.382 Fibonacci level (about 15.95 ounces of gold per Bitcoin).

Conclusion: The Bitcoin Bear Market May Be 90% Complete

Measured in assets like gold, Bitcoin’s purchasing power has declined steadily since December 2024, and the bear market has lasted much longer than analysis based only on the US dollar would suggest. Converting cross-cycle Fibonacci retracement levels to US dollars points to strong support in the $67,000–$80,000 range. While the analysis is theoretical and actual movements may not match exactly, the overlapping data from multiple timeframes and valuation models indicate: the end of the bear market may come sooner than the market expects.