On the eve of the Fed's rate cut, is 90% of the Bitcoin bear market already over?

The end of the Bitcoin bear market may come sooner, as the golden ratio has fallen below the 350-day moving average and reached a key Fibonacci support level, making the current region an accumulation zone.

Author: White55

Source: Mars Finance

Bitcoin has struggled to maintain a lasting correlation with gold, recently moving in sync only during market downturns. However, if we view Bitcoin prices from the perspective of gold rather than the US dollar, we can gain a more comprehensive understanding of the current market cycle. By measuring Bitcoin’s real purchasing power against comparable assets like gold, we can identify potential support levels and judge when the bear market cycle might end.

Breaking Key Support, Bitcoin Bear Market Officially Begins

When Bitcoin fell below the 350-day moving average of around $100,000 and the critical six-figure psychological barrier, it effectively entered bear market territory, immediately dropping by about 20%. From a technical analysis perspective, a price drop below the “golden ratio multiplier” moving average is typically seen as a bear market signal, but the situation is even more interesting when denominated in gold instead of dollars.

Figure 1: BTC breaking below the 350-day moving average has historically coincided with the start of bear markets.

Bitcoin’s performance against gold is markedly different from its performance against the US dollar. After peaking in December 2024, Bitcoin has dropped over 50% against gold, while its dollar-denominated peak appeared in October 2025, significantly lower than the previous year’s high. This discrepancy suggests that Bitcoin may have entered a bear market much earlier than most believe. Reviewing historical bear market cycles for Bitcoin denominated in gold, the current pullback may already be near a key support zone.

Figure 2: In gold terms, BTC fell below the 350-day moving average as early as August.

The 2015 bear market cycle bottomed after an 86% drop over 406 days; the 2017 cycle lasted 364 days with an 84% drop; the previous bear market dropped 76% over 399 days. As of this analysis, Bitcoin priced in gold has fallen 51% over 350 days. Although the percentage drop is gradually decreasing as Bitcoin’s market cap grows and more capital flows in, this mainly reflects increased institutional participation and reduced Bitcoin supply, rather than a fundamental change in cycle patterns.

Figure 3: BTC’s performance in gold suggests that this bear market cycle may already be 90% complete.

Multi-Cycle Indicators Show Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom Is Near

Beyond looking at declines and timeframes, Fibonacci retracement levels across multiple cycles provide more precise insights. Analyzing from historical cycle bottoms to tops using Fibonacci tools, there is a clear overlap of key levels.

Figure 4: Bear market bottoms in previous cycles have aligned with critical Fibonacci retracement levels.

In the 2015–2018 cycle, the bear market bottom appeared at the 0.618 Fibonacci level, corresponding to about 2.56 ounces of gold per Bitcoin; in the 2018–2022 cycle, the bottom landed precisely at the 0.5 level, or about 9.74 ounces per Bitcoin. The latter became an important resistance-turned-support in the subsequent bull market.

Translating the Golden Ratio to USD Price Targets

From the last bear market low to the current bull market high, the 0.618 Fibonacci level corresponds to roughly 22.81 ounces of gold per Bitcoin, and the 0.5 level to 19.07 ounces. The current price is between these two levels, suggesting an ideal accumulation zone from a purchasing power perspective.

Figure 5: Predicting BTC’s gold-denominated low via Fibonacci levels and converting to USD can infer the potential Bitcoin bottom area.

Fibonacci levels from different cycles form multiple overlaps: the current cycle’s 0.786 level (about 21.05 ounces of gold) corresponds to approximately $89,160 per Bitcoin; the previous cycle’s 0.618 level again points to around $80,000. If it falls further, the next technical target is around $67,000, aligning with the 0.382 Fibonacci level (about 15.95 ounces per Bitcoin).

Conclusion: The Bitcoin Bear Market May Be 90% Complete

Measured against assets like gold, Bitcoin’s purchasing power has steadily declined since December 2024, with the bear market lasting much longer than analysis based solely on the US dollar suggests. After converting cross-cycle Fibonacci retracement levels to USD, there is strong support in the $67,000–$80,000 range. While the analysis is theoretical and actual price action may differ, the convergence of data from multiple timeframes and valuation frameworks suggests the bear market could end sooner than the market expects.