10x Research: The accuracy and profitability of prediction markets are actually dominated by a small group of elites, while the majority of participants are more like "emotion-driven bettors."

According to TechFlow, on December 9, 10x Research released the content of a market prediction research report on social media. The report points out that while prediction markets appear to be collective intelligence machines on the surface, data shows that accuracy and profitability are actually driven by a small number of informed elites. These individuals are responsible for pricing probabilities, hedging risk exposures, and extracting premiums from retail-driven long-term bets.

The report analyzes that most users behave like “emotional bettors,” trading discipline and edge for dopamine and narratives, while a small group systematically profits from mispriced optimism, order flow imbalances, and late-stage convergence. The institution states that as prediction markets are expected to expand significantly by 2026, now is the right time for in-depth research, since easily accessible advantages will disappear as liquidity deepens. The third section will provide ten actionable trading frameworks and practical rules.