Vitalik Buterin proposes introducing Gas futures on Ethereum (ETH) to hedge against the risks caused by surging transaction fees.

Vitalik Buterin Proposes a Prediction Market-Like Mechanism for Gas Fees, Providing Ethereum Users with a Way to Hedge Against Future Network Fee Volatility

Author: Brian Quarmby

Source: Cointelegraph

Article Translated by: Chang

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has proposed the idea of establishing an on-chain gas futures market, a mechanism that could provide users with certainty over transaction fees as the network sees broader adoption.

Buterin posted on X Saturday, stating that given the doubts people have raised about whether existing fee-reduction methods in the Ethereum roadmap can ensure low gas fees, there is a need for a “good, trustless on-chain gas futures market.”

Buterin pointed out that one way to address uncertainty is to allow users to essentially lock in prices for specific future time periods; he proposed a potential market centered around Ethereum’s base fee—a key component of overall gas costs.

How an Ethereum (ETH) Gas Futures Market Would Work

In traditional futures markets, contracts are used to buy or sell assets like oil at a set price in the future, allowing investors to speculate on price movements and producers to hedge against future risks.

In the Ethereum context, a futures market would essentially work the same way: providing gas fees at a set price for a future time window, allowing network users to potentially save on costs if prices spike in the future.

Thus, a mature and reliable futures market would offer the ecosystem a critical reference point for speculation, planning, or building.

He stated: “An on-chain gas futures market would help address this issue: people would get a clear signal about expected future gas fees, and could even hedge against future gas prices, effectively prepaying for any specific amount of gas in a particular time window.”

Such a prediction market would provide an essential service for high-volume network users—such as traders, builders, applications, and institutions—who need a certain degree of certainty to forecast their operating costs.

Ethereum (ETH) Gas Fees Have Continued to Drop in 2025

According to Etherscan data, Buterin’s idea comes at a time when the average gas fee for a basic Ethereum transaction is about 0.474 gwei, equivalent to $0.01 at the time of writing.

However, for more complex transactions like token swaps, NFT sales, and cross-chain bridging of assets, average costs are about $0.16, $0.27, and $0.05, respectively.

Despite Ethereum transaction fees continuing to decrease in 2025, the average cost of various transaction types has experienced multiple spikes and dips. According to Ycharts data, the average fee was $1 at the start of the year, dropping to $0.30, with peaks of $2.60 and lows of $0.18 during the period.