What are the trends for gold and silver in 2026? Precious metals giant reveals gold prices could rise by up to 44%

Global precious metals smelting giant Heraeus has released the “2026 Precious Metals Outlook,” predicting that gold will trade in the $3,750 to $5,000 range, with a silver target of $43 to $62. This means gold could see a maximum increase of 44%, while silver could potentially double. Three driving forces—central banks buying a thousand tons annually, worsening fiscal deficits, and surging investment demand—are expected to ignite a precious metals bull market in the second half of 2026.

Why 2026 Is a Key Turning Point for Precious Metals

(Source: Heraeus)

Heraeus analysts warn that 2026 will see a “consolidation in the first half, explosion in the second half” segmented market trend. Gold and silver will experience rapid rises to historic highs in 2025; with gains too swift and too large, the market will need time to digest profits. Gold prices traded sideways for a long period from April to August 2025 before rising again, so the next rally may take several months to build.

Policy uncertainty is reshaping the supply and demand landscape for precious metals. The US continues to push Section 232 investigations and has launched anti-dumping probes into Russian imports. Any policy changes could trigger inventory shifts and increase price volatility. More critically, Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s term ends in May 2026, and President Trump would have the authority to appoint a new chair. The new policy direction is likely to align more closely with the White House, allowing inflation to remain at higher levels and reducing debt burdens through negative real interest rates.

The market is concerned about a fiscal-dominant scenario, where monetary policy is used to keep interest rates low to help finance government spending, potentially even driving debt monetization. The US Treasury yield curve de-inverted over a year ago, which usually signals a recession is not far off. However, if the labor market continues to weaken, the Fed will likely favor supporting the economy and may further cut rates even if inflation remains above target.

Three Drivers for Gold to Hit $5,000

(Source: Heraeus)

Central bank gold buying will not significantly slow in 2026. Although the volume of central bank gold purchases in 2025 will slow compared to the past three years—each with over 1,000 tons added annually—it remains robust overall. The World Gold Council’s annual survey shows that 43% of central banks expect to continue increasing gold reserves in the future, with most indicating plans to reduce US dollar holdings in favor of gold or other currency assets. This de-dollarization trend will accelerate further amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

ETF investors added 14.7 million ounces of gold in 2025, marking a strong comeback after moderate increases in 2024. Total ETF holdings rose to 97.5 million ounces, still below the January 2020 all-time high of 111 million ounces, suggesting a further 15% potential for increases. Demand for gold bars and coins continues to grow, indicating strong physical investment demand. Once the market confirms sticky inflation and the interest rate path, investors will accelerate gold allocations to hedge risks.

Key Factors Driving Gold Price Breakouts

Dovish stance by the new Fed Chair: Allowing inflation to remain above 3%, pushing real interest rates negative, which greatly enhances gold’s appeal

Central bank gold purchases return to 1,000 tons per year: If geopolitical tensions intensify, central banks may accelerate the de-dollarization process

ETF holdings surpass 2020 highs: Institutional investors reallocate, driving ETF holdings up by over 15 million ounces

Although jewelry demand is suppressed by high prices, this is expected to be a short-term phenomenon. Once gold stabilizes in the $3,750 to $4,000 range, consumers will gradually adapt to the new price level and jewelry demand will partially recover.

Silver: Catch-up Logic and Unique Pressures

Silver will face a more complex supply and demand situation in 2026. Silver prices hit a historic high in December 2025, mainly due to liquidity tightening that caused a large flow of metal from London to New York, increased ETF inflows, and a surge of retail buying from September to October that tightened the market and sent lease rates soaring. However, after such a sharp rally, silver prices will need time to consolidate.

Photovoltaic demand is expected to decline in 2026. After several years of strong growth, new solar installations are projected to decelerate to around 1% in 2026 due to policy changes in China. High silver prices are accelerating the adoption of silver-saving technologies, including finer conductive wire designs, module structure adjustments, and substitution with cheaper metals. India accounts for about 40% of global silver jewelry demand and two-thirds of silverware demand, but as silver prices rise, consumer purchasing power is challenged, with silver imports down 14% year-over-year through October.

Supply-side pressures will also increase. Since silver is mainly produced as a by-product of gold, copper, lead, and zinc mining, rising output of these metals in 2026 could translate into increased silver supply. High prices will also spur more silver recycling. Overall, silver price gains will continue to rely primarily on investment demand. This year, ETF holdings rose from 716 million ounces to 835 million ounces, a 17% increase, before some profit-taking occurred.

Analysts conclude: “From an investment perspective, silver’s volatility is higher than gold’s, so the drivers for gold—economic and geopolitical risks, US fiscal and monetary policy, Fed rate cuts, and the dollar’s trajectory—will also impact silver. If gold resumes its rally, silver is highly likely to rise in tandem.” Heraeus expects silver prices to trade in the $43 to $62 range in 2026, with a maximum gain of 44%.

Risk Warning and Investment Strategy

Investors need to be alert to recession risks. A weakening job market and deteriorating economic outlook could, if a recession occurs in 2026, sharply reduce industrial demand, with a greater impact on silver. For gold, however, recessions are often accompanied by rate-cutting cycles, which can be a positive factor.