Reputed Analyst Shares In-Depth Technical and Psychological Analysis in a Full Market Breakdown

Reputed analyst shares in-depth technical and psychological analysis.

The full market breakdown highlights why bearish calls beat bullish hope.

The analyst concludes that a bear market is all that lies ahead.

A reputed analyst shares in-depth technical and psychological analysis in a full market breakdown report. He begins by reaffirming how he was bullish during the $100,000 - $125,000 sideways movement, and how he expected to see a new ATH target for BTC in the $140,000 price range next. This outcome did not come through due to the crash on October 10, 2025. Since then, many have expected higher highs to print after Bitcoin bottoms, which this analyst does not believe has happened yet

Reputed Analyst Shares In-Depth Technical and Psychological Analysis

To highlight, the analyst marks how Bitcoin’s bottom is not in yet and won’t be in the next few weeks or next few months. The bull market support (EMA50 weekly) has been broken since the day the weekly candle closed below, meaning the invalidation was hit. Presently, the analyst believes the crypto market is in the very beginning of a huge bear market, stating that the sooner people realize this, the better it will be for them

What’s more, he states that this bear market will only stop when Bitcoin reaches the $54,000 - $60,000 level, which he expects to be in Q4 of 2026. Until then, massive downward price action is expected. He also affirms that there are plenty of reasons to be bearish and practically no reasons to be bullish, contrary to the thoughts of bullish analysts in the market. He also marks how there is an insufficiency of liquidity in the markets, and the Bank of Japan, as well as the Fed, are not easing the economy, but instead tightening it even more

The post goes on to state that the most common argument used by bulls currently is that QT ended, hoping the Fed will activate QE, and the real bull run will start alongside the long-awaited altseason. This, he claims, is a completely wrong expectation. This is because the Fed ending QT means they will stop selling MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) as well as US treasury bonds. This doesn’t mean they will start buying them (QE)

Bear Market Unstoppable?

On this matter, the analyst explains how the balance sheet can stay neutral, much like it did from 2014 to 2017. Ending QT means stopping operations that take away liquidity from the markets, and this would be bullish if it were the only way the Fed had to add or take liquidity from the markets, but it is not, he concludes. In particular, the Fed can add/take away liquidity from the market directly by buying or selling MBS and US treasury bonds, or indirectly by raising or lowering the interest rates. According to the analyst, this is exactly what most people fail to understand

If the Fed ends QT (bullish) but on the other side starts raising rates (bearish), then there’s an imbalance in their policies that end up annihilating each other. This means that what was supposed to be bullish or even extremely bullish because it preceded the start of QE in the near future, is actually not bullish, and is even bearish due to the hawkish measures implemented on the interest rates

He finishes by declaring that the Fed is extremely late to ease the economy, and will likely go on to crash the markets to have enough reason to ease the economy by activating QE and cutting rates. At the same time, BOJ (Bank of Japan) is set to raise rates by 100bps in the span of months. The post ends with a call to expect the bearish facts and take stringent measures to protect capital.