FOMC Meeting Approaching, Market Expects Rate Cut or Delay Until October, Only One Rate Cut This Year

Gate News reports that on March 18, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold a policy meeting at 2 a.m. tomorrow. The market widely expects that this meeting will keep interest rates unchanged, and there will likely be no rate cuts in the near future. Futures prices indicate that policymakers will probably consider easing policies no earlier than September, with a higher likelihood of delaying until October, and only one rate cut is expected this year.

CNBC summarizes the mainstream expectations for this FOMC meeting: Senior Investment Strategist at Russell Investments states that the March meeting will almost certainly keep rates steady, but any clues Chairman Powell may give about future rate directions will be crucial. The U.S. economy remains resilient, but this also means the threshold for further rate cuts could be quite high.

An observer from U.S. Bank’s Federal Reserve team notes that since the market has almost completely ruled out a rate cut in April, Powell’s ability to guide the market depends on how much his statements reflect the committee’s consensus rather than personal views. Even without this restriction, Powell’s task remains challenging.

Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson predicts that the post-meeting statement will be cautious in describing inflation, unemployment, economic growth, and the expected policy path.