Polymarket bets on US-Iran conflict ending by June, market expectations show key time window

Gate News reports that on March 18, prediction market platform Polymarket showed that users are gradually forming a consensus expectation: the conflict between the United States and Iran may see a turning point by the end of the second quarter of 2026, with June being the most concentrated betting period.

Based on current data distribution, the market considers the probability of ending the conflict within March to be low. However, after late April, the relevant probability begins to rise significantly and reaches a high level between May and June. This trend reflects increasing investor confidence that the situation will ease in the short term.

Signs of change are also appearing on the political front. On March 17, U.S. counterterrorism official Joe Kent resigned, reportedly criticizing the direction of the war. This event is seen as a sign of growing internal disagreements within the government. Meanwhile, Axios disclosed that U.S. and Iranian officials have resumed direct communication channels. Although formal negotiations have not yet begun, it indicates that both sides are exploring de-escalation pathways.

Economic factors are also exerting pressure. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, further increasing global inflation risks. At the same time, some European and Asian allies have not supported the U.S. expansion of military deployments, limiting the space for escalation.

Domestically, as midterm elections approach, American society’s doubts about ongoing military actions are rising, and calls for clear withdrawal strategies are increasing. Multiple factors combined pose challenges to the sustainability of a long-term war.

Analysts point out that, unlike the Russia-Ukraine conflict, this round of conflict is subject to dual constraints of economic costs and geopolitical considerations, making its duration relatively limited. The market generally expects the U.S. to announce phased results and adjust military strategies by mid-2026, thereby ending the current conflict cycle.