Gate News reports that Fidelity Digital Assets states that in this round of the market cycle, Bitcoin’s pullback is about 50%, far lower than the previous 80% to 90% declines, indicating decreased market volatility and increased institutional confidence. Research analyst Zack Wainwright said that the upward gains in each cycle show a decreasing trend, and the downside risk in this pullback is relatively smaller.
According to TradingView data, Bitcoin reached this cycle’s low on February 6, slightly above $60,000, down 52% from the approximately $126,000 all-time high set on October 6, 2025. It also declined 46% from the peak six months earlier. Compared with the 77% decline in the previous cycle, the market’s pullback is noticeably more moderate. Nick Ruck, head of Fidelity’s LVRG research, pointed out that this reflects Bitcoin gradually shifting from a speculative asset to a more stable store of value, paving the way for broader adoption in the future.
Periodic analysis shows that Bitcoin’s top occurred 534 days after the last halving, shorter than in the previous cycle. Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, predicts that the historical bottom may appear between 912 and 922 days after the halving, suggesting that Bitcoin’s bottom could fall between late September 2026 and early October.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains below the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, which are widely regarded as long-term trend indicators. The current price hovers near the 200-week exponential moving average, a level that previously provided key support during market declines. Analysts believe that if Bitcoin can hold this support level, it will present an opportunity for medium- to long-term investors to position themselves.
Overall, this cycle’s Bitcoin correction has been relatively smooth, with solid technical support. Coupled with increased institutional participation, market sentiment is becoming more rational, potentially laying the foundation for Bitcoin’s price stabilization and possible rebound in the second half of 2026.
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