Strategy analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum on March 31, keep up with my rhythm.

1. Bitcoin (BTC) Strategy Analysis

Technical signals

Price Trend: Current price is around $81,700-82,100, the dual moving averages (MA7 and MA30) have formed a "death cross", with short-term bears in control.

Key Support/Resistance:

Support levels: $81,500 (March low trend line), $82,000 (psychological level).

Resistance level: $82,400-$82,500 (MA7 resistance), $83,000 (previous high pressure).

Trading volume: The decrease in volume during the decline indicates weakened selling pressure, but no clear reversal signal has appeared.

Trading Strategy

Short Position Strategy:

Entry: Short lightly on the rebound to around $82,400-$82,500, with a stop loss set above $83,000.

Target: $81,000 - $80,500 (previous low and integer level).

Long Position Strategy:

Entry: If the price stabilizes at $81,500 and breaks through the MA7 ($81,850) with volume, you can attempt a long position with a stop loss at $81,200.

Target: $82,500-83,000 (moving average resistance zone).

Risk Warning:

The volatility in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy may trigger flash crash risks, and attention should be paid to the FOMC meeting on March 18.

Insufficient liquidity on the exchange may amplify volatility, it is recommended to maintain a margin rate of over 200%.
 

2. Ethereum (ETH) Strategy Analysis

Technical signals

Price Trend: Current price is around $1,800-$1,810, with moving averages converging indicating a directionless short-term fluctuation.

Key Support/Resistance:

Support levels: $1,750 (key psychological level), $1,780-$1,800 (previous low support).

Resistance level: $1,820-$1,850 (moving average pressure zone).

Trading volume: The continuous decrease in volume reflects a strong market sentiment of wait-and-see.

Trading Strategy

Volatility Strategy:

Range trading: Sell high and buy low within the range of $1,782-$1,820, with a stop loss set 50 points outside the range.

Breakthrough Strategy:

Bullish: If it breaks through $1,820 with increased volume, buy at $1,810 on a pullback, target $1,840, stop loss at $1,795.

Short: Short when the rebound is blocked at $1,840-$1,850, target $1,780-$1,766, stop loss at $1,860.

Risk Warning:

The ETH/BTC exchange rate has dropped to 0.022 (a near five-year low), and we need to be cautious of the liquidity crisis in altcoins.

The advancement of the California bill may enhance the long-term application scenarios for ETH, but the short-term impact is limited.
 

3. Comprehensive Summary

BTC core logic: Short-term bearish dominance, with a focus on the effectiveness of support at $81,500-$82,000, mainly shorting on rebounds; if it breaks below $80,000, it may trigger technical stop-loss orders.

Core logic of ETH: Consolidation awaits a breakout, moving averages are converging and require a direction choice, $1,800 is the dividing line for bulls and bears; a drop below opens up downside potential.

Cross-market hedging: If BTC continues to decline, consider going long on the ETH/BTC ratio to hedge risks.

Note: The above strategy is based on real-time market conditions and institutional analysis for the day. Actual operations need to be adjusted dynamically based on market conditions. Cryptocurrency is a high-risk asset; please strictly set stop-loss orders and manage your position size.