1. Bitcoin (BTC) Short-term Strategy

Current technical form
Price range: Bitcoin is currently reported at about $96,500, within the key fluctuation range of $94,000 to $97,000. The technical indicators show that the RSI has rebounded to 57 (neutral to strong), the MACD momentum bars have shortened but a death cross has not yet formed, with short-term support at $94,000 and resistance above at $97,000.

Breakthrough Signal: If the price effectively breaks through $97,000 with trading volume increasing by more than 20%, you can go long, targeting $98,500 and the psychological level of $100,000, with a stop loss set below $95,000.
Retracement opportunity
If the price retraces to the support zone of 94,000-95,000 USD and shows a bullish engulfing pattern or a long lower shadow, you can gradually open long positions, targeting a rebound to the 97,000-98,000 USD area, with a stop loss set below 92,500 USD.
Risk control before the Federal Reserve's decision
On May 8th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision. Although the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged exceeds 97%, caution is needed regarding the volatility triggered by Powell's hawkish remarks. It is recommended to reduce positions by 10-20% in advance to lower risk exposure.
2. Ethereum (ETH) Short-term Strategy
Technical aspects and key levels
Range: Ethereum is now trading at around $1,773, with short-term support at $1,750 and resistance at $1,850. The daily RSI is neutral (47), the MACD momentum is weaker than Bitcoin, and it is necessary to pay attention to the effectiveness of the support at $1,750.

Breakthrough Strategy: If the price stabilizes above $1,850 and the trading volume increases, additional long positions can be added, targeting $1,900-2,000, with a stop loss set below $1,820; if it falls below $1,750, caution is needed for further correction to $1,730.
Pectra Upgrade Impact
The Pectra upgrade executed on the mainnet today introduces smart accounts, increases the staking limit to 2,048 ETH, and other optimizations. This is beneficial in the long term, but may trigger a "sell the news" pullback in the short term. It is recommended to observe on-chain data (such as Layer 2 transaction volume and staking volume) after the upgrade before adjusting positions.
Interactive operations
If Bitcoin breaks through 97,000 USD, Ethereum may rise in tandem, allowing for simultaneous long positions; conversely, if Bitcoin pulls back, ETH should pay attention to the support strength at 1,750 USD.
3. Risk Warning and Position Management
macroeconomic risk
The Fed's policy signals, the US CPI data (to be released on May 10), and geopolitical events may exacerbate market volatility, requiring a reserve of 30-40% cash to respond to sudden pullbacks.
On-chain warning
Recently, Bitcoin whales transferred 3,422 BTC (approximately 324 million USD), which may indicate large-scale sell-offs or market manipulation. Caution is needed for short-term liquidity shocks.
Position Suggestions
The total position should be controlled at 60-65%, with a suggested allocation ratio of BTC to ETH of 40%:25%, to avoid excessive concentration in a single asset.
Four, Operating Tools and Hedging
Options Hedging: Buy Bitcoin put options (strike price $94,000) to protect spot positions, or lock in some profits through futures contracts.
Scale in: New funds can enter the market in 3-5 batches, adding positions when BTC pulls back by 5%-8% and ETH by 3%-5%.
Summary: The current market is at a key node resonating with both technical and fundamental aspects (Federal Reserve decision, Pectra upgrade). It is recommended to adopt a range oscillation strategy, strictly set stop-losses, and pay attention to breakout signals. In the long term, the Bitcoin target of $100,000 and the Ethereum ecosystem upgrade still hold potential, but it is necessary to guard against short-term black swan events. #BTC #ETH