#PPI数据公布 This time the PPI and retail data are both weak, indicating that the pressure of rising prices is easing and may even turn downward. This also shows that inflation in the United States has not been resolved, and signs of deflation are emerging again.

On one side is the lingering shadow of inflation, and on the other side is the risk of economic cooling; the U.S. economy is truly experiencing a juxtaposition of extremes. Consumers are not spending, businesses are not raising prices, and one of the engines of the economy, consumption, is starting to stall.
What does Federal Reserve Chairman Powell think?
Powell is now a bit caught in a dilemma. On May 15, he stated: interest rates will not drop quickly! There may only be 1-2 rate cuts this year, the earliest being after September, depending on inflation and employment data. This means that in the short term, the Federal Reserve's impact on the market is limited, and the real variable is still Trump's policies.
Powell is actually quite entangled, he just admitted not long ago that he cut interest rates late last year and missed the best time. Now that the PPI and retail sales data are so weak, there are signs of cooling in the economy. If he continues to drag his feet and not cut interest rates, he could repeat the mistakes of the past and cause the economy to decline further. But he didn't dare to release the water easily, because no one knows whether Trump will increase tariffs again and make a tariff 2.0. If there were no tariffs, the April inflation data would have come down significantly, and the Fed could have cut rates in May or June, and the market could have breathed a sigh of relief. But once the tariffs are in place, the price of imported goods will rise, prices may rise, and inflation will have to rise again. Powell is also worried that tariffs will come back after the interest rate cut, and when inflation soars, the market and the people will have to scold the street. Therefore, Powell would rather wait more than risk cutting interest rates. He will either cut interest rates by July to save the market early. Or put it off until after July, and then clean up the mess when the crisis erupts.
How will the market move next?
Now both the US stock market and Bitcoin are watching the Federal Reserve. Whether the Federal Reserve will provide liquidity directly determines if the market can continue to rise.
History tells us that a bull market relies not on logic, but on money! Monetary easing and liquidity flowing in like a flood are what allow the market to rise.
In the short term, Bitcoin and US stocks will continue to fluctuate at high levels.
In the long term, this year the global M2 money supply has reached a new high, which provides momentum for the rise of Bitcoin. #BTC能否冲上11万？ #山寨币季节指数升至24