ETH plummeted this morning, dipping to as low as 4278 dollars, causing panic in the market. On the surface, the "old Trump's remarks" and the news of "a large amount of ETH about to be unstaked" overlap, triggering wave after wave of panic selling. However, a deeper analysis reveals that this big dump resembles a whipsaw driven by news, rather than a real risk, and instead provides investors with a buying low opportunity.

Let's first sort out the two main causes of this big dump:

- The public statement by Old Trump was interpreted by the market as "bearish for the crypto market," directly triggering emotional selling by investors.
- News about "ETH unstaking" has suddenly appeared frequently, and many investors are worried that "after the unlock, whales will dump a large amount," so they are selling off to avoid risks.

These two factors combined caused ETH to fall by more than 4% in a short period, dropping directly from around $4450 to $4278.

However, upon careful consideration, it becomes clear that these two so-called "bearish" events were actually anticipated long ago and cannot be considered "black swan" events:

- The content of Old Trump's speech seems to be "targeting the crypto market," but the core viewpoint is actually the "regulatory direction" that the market has discussed repeatedly, such as opinions on the classification of crypto assets and compliance requirements for exchanges. These are not new messages; institutions have already digested them in advance, and they are even reflected in the prices. Moreover, the "objective facts" he mentioned are essentially issues that have long existed in the development of the industry, not sudden risks that have emerged. The panic selling is more about amplifying market sentiment through the celebrity effect.
- Regarding ETH unstaking, on-chain data has long shown that the "unlocking volume is within a controllable range." The scale of ETH to be unstaked is about 23,000 coins, accounting for only 0.03% of the current circulation, which is far from enough to "crash the market." Similar panic has occurred before each unstaking, but after the actual unlocking, most whales choose to "continue staking" rather than sell, and this time is likely no exception. The "panic" fueled by news is more directed at retail investors.

More importantly, this wave of big dump did not break through the "key support level": $4278 is just the mid-band support level on the ETH 4-hour chart, and it is also the "stabilization point" where multiple previous pullbacks occurred. In terms of volume, although there were many sell orders during the decline, after dropping to $4278, buy orders began to actively enter the market, and the price quickly rebounded to around $4320. This indicates that "the panic selling has almost run its course, and the bulls are starting to pick up at the support level."

For ordinary investors, what they should do now is not to "follow the panic", but to "focus on the support level":

- If the pullback can hold the 4250 - 4300 USD range, it will be an opportunity to buy low in batches. After all, the long-term logic of ETH, such as institutional ETF increases and ecosystem expansion, has not changed. Old news from Trump and the staking resolution are merely "short-term emotional disturbances," and after the pullback, it may actually allow for acquiring chips at lower prices than before.
- Even if the price dips further, there is stronger support around 4200 dollars, which is the daily MA30 moving average. As long as this level is not broken, the overall upward trend remains intact, and there is no need to lose composure due to short-term fluctuations.

In the cryptocurrency world, there has always been a situation of "borrowing news to whipsaw", especially in the phase where ETH is not far from its previous high (4730 USD). The main force needs to use "fake bad news" to wash out the indecisive retail investors in order to break through resistance more easily. This big dump seems to be "full of risks", but in fact, it is a process of "sifting through chips". Once the panic emotion passes, ETH will likely return to an upward oscillation rhythm, and the current pullback is precisely an "opportunity" for those who understand the logic behind it. What are your thoughts on this matter? Feel free to share in the comments section.