#美联储降息预期升温

The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes sent an important signal: the crypto market will welcome a frenzy in October.
The "spring river warms the water" of the crypto market: the logic of liquidity-driven dynamics is strengthening. Although macro policies have not yet fully clarified, the cryptocurrency market has responded first. On October 5, Bitcoin broke through $126,000, reaching an all-time high. Despite subsequent technical corrections, market sentiment has significantly improved. Behind this volatility, the logic of liquidity has become the core driving force:
The expectation for a Fed rate cut is rising: currently, the market anticipates a 94.6% probability of a rate cut in October. If this becomes a reality, it would be a continued easing signal following the first rate cut in September. Historical data shows that the Fed's preemptive rate cuts in 2019 led to a 95% annual increase in Bitcoin. This cycle, along with capital inflow from the spot ETF (, such as BlackRock's IBIT attracting over $400 million in a single day, could amplify market momentum.
Dollar Liquidity Recovery: The U.S. government shutdown has halted the replenishment of the Treasury General Account ) TGA (, combined with the end-of-quarter fund inflow, easing short-term liquidity pressure in the market. Coinbase points out that Bitcoin has a correlation of up to 0.9 with the global M2 liquidity index, and the rebound in liquidity will directly support prices.
Structural Supply and Demand Changes: On-chain data shows that the net position of long-term holders )LTH( of Bitcoin is approaching neutrality, and short-term selling pressure is easing. The $115,000-$120,000 range could become a new support level. If the market maintains the current supply and demand balance, a breakout window may appear in mid-October.
Key variables after the interest rate cut: Which factors will affect the market? If the Federal Reserve confirms a rate cut at the meeting on October 28-29, attention should be paid to the following variables and their subsequent impact on the crypto market:
Policy consistency expectations: If interest rates continue to decline in December, a consensus on the "easing cycle" may form, driving funds from traditional safe-haven assets like gold towards high-growth targets such as Bitcoin. JPMorgan estimates that the valuation gap of Bitcoin relative to gold has reached $46,000, with a theoretical target price potentially pointing to $165,000.
Geopolitical and policy risks: The tariff policies and immigration restrictions of the Trump administration may exacerbate supply chain disruptions and indirectly raise inflation expectations. If inflation persists, the Federal Reserve may be forced to adjust its pace, significantly increasing market volatility.
Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment: After Bitcoin broke through $125,000, some investors chose to take profits, but institutional funds continued to flow in through ETFs, accumulating over $1.6 billion this week, which may limit the downside. Technical analysis shows that $130,000 is the next key psychological barrier.
Time Window and Market Strategy: Layout Logic Before and After Interest Rate Cuts
According to the FedWatch tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the probability of interest rate cuts in October has exceeded 94%, with the market widely expecting the results to be announced on October 29. If the policy is implemented, it may lead to short-term fluctuations of "buy the rumor, sell the news," but the trend of improving liquidity in the medium term remains unchanged.
Signals that investors can pay attention to include:
• Federal Reserve officials stated that they are paying attention to Powell's remarks on the trade-off between employment and inflation. If signals indicating that "restrictive rates have peaked" are released, it may strengthen expectations for a rate-cutting cycle.
• On-chain data changes: If the selling pressure from long-term holders continues to weaken and the net inflow to exchanges increases, this may signal the beginning of a new round of price increases.
• Macroeconomic Policy Linkage: Focus on the U.S. Treasury's bond issuance plans and the monetary policy trends of global central banks to avoid the risk of marginal liquidity tightening. The Federal Reserve's shift towards liquidity easing policies is becoming increasingly connected with the cryptocurrency market.
Despite the inevitability of short-term fluctuations, the current market support logic is formed by a combination of liquidity easing, institutional entry, and technical breakthroughs. For ordinary investors, rationally assessing risk tolerance and avoiding high leverage is key to coping with volatile market conditions.
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