October 12 Ethereum future trend analysis and probability assessment

1. Short-term (1-3 days) scenarios

Continuation of the downtrend (70% probability):
If unable to recover 3,798 (EMA5), the target looks down to 3,574 (Bollinger Bands lower limit), and if it breaks, it may test the previous low of 3,275.

Technical pullback (30% probability):
If it stands firm at 3,574 and breaks through 4,146 (Bollinger Band middle line) with volume, the target is to look at the range of 4,500-4,700.

2. Medium-term (1-2 weeks) trend

Decisive factor:

Federal Reserve policy signals from the November meeting (November 2);

U.S. October CPI data (October 13);

Progress on Ethereum Spot ETF Approval (Key Milestones in November).
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