BTC and ETH have been relatively weak recently, and from multiple factors, there is a possibility of further fall. The following is a specific analysis:

• Price performance: As of October 21, 2025, Bitcoin fell from $110,500 to $107,500, a decline of over 3% in 24 hours; Ethereum fell by over 5%, dropping below the $3,900 mark, closing at $3,863.

• Technical indicators: From the daily chart, the relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin is 40, below the neutral level of 50. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) showed a bearish crossover on October 11, indicating that bearish momentum is strengthening. The RSI and MACD indicators for Ethereum also show a bearish trend; if it continues to fall, it may extend to $3593.

• Market sentiment and capital flow: According to Coinglass, within 24 hours, over $400 million in cryptocurrency contracts were liquidated across the network, with more than 120,000 people liquidated, of which six out of ten were long positions, indicating a relatively fearful market sentiment and that investors may be continuing to sell off. In addition, Bitcoin put options listed on Deribit have continuously shown a premium compared to call options, valid until expiration in September 2026, confirming that some traders are preparing for ongoing downside risks extending into next year.

• Macroeconomic and policy factors: The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve has a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. If it continues to adopt a tight monetary policy, market liquidity will decrease, funding costs will rise, and investors may be more inclined to traditional safe-haven assets, thereby reducing their investment in BTC and ETH. In addition, the escalation of global trade tensions and geopolitical risks has also led to a decline in investor risk appetite, which is detrimental to the cryptocurrency market.

• Industry-related events: Regional banks in the United States have been caught up in a series of credit fraud incidents, escalating investors' concerns about the credit market. Driven by risk-averse sentiment, investors are hastily selling off risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

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