If we take 98000 as the potential bottom, we need to push towards 130000 afterwards. We must thoroughly analyze the logic of the three possible trends and the current market situation to understand it clearly.

The first type of "rapid rise after significant accumulation at the bottom" is clearly no longer valid. Currently, the trading volume of BTC around 98000 has not significantly increased; instead, it shows a "contracting fluctuation" characteristic — if the main force wants to make a sharp rise in the short term, they must concentrate their holdings, and the trading volume would show a "breakthrough with increased volume" like it did before the bull market started in 2023. However, there are neither large buy orders entering the market nor a breakthrough of the key resistance level at 105000, so the possibility of a quick surge in the short term has been ruled out.
The second type, "sideways / inclined accumulation followed by a slow rise," is currently the most worthy direction to observe. From the trend, BTC has been oscillating around 98000 for over a week, neither breaking down nor rebounding significantly, which aligns with the characteristics of "oscillating while accumulating." This trend requires time for verification: on one hand, we need to wait for the pressure from U.S. Treasury bond liquidity to ease (liquidity returning after the government reopens), and on the other hand, we need to see if the upgrades of ETH and the inflow of institutional ETF funds can continue to exert positive effects. In the short term, it is very likely to be "a rebound to the 102000-105000 range followed by a pullback," repeatedly grinding to accumulate momentum, it won't surge sharply, but it can slowly raise the bottom, laying the foundation for a subsequent push towards 130000.
The third scenario "98000 is not the bottom, continue to explore downwards or move bearish", the risk needs to be vigilant but the probability is relatively low. The current support logic at 98000 still exists: the Trump family's support for crypto policy expectations, the market enthusiasm brought by ETH upgrades, and the institutional demand for core asset allocation, none of these are "bearish" signals. However, if the US debt crisis deteriorates beyond expectations (for example, breaking the 45 trillion critical point), or a black swan event occurs (such as significant regulatory crackdown), a drop to 96000 or even 84000 cannot be ruled out. But the extreme situation of "not going back up to 120000" needs to be considered only after breaking the key support of 90000.
Overall, the second trend has the highest probability, don't expect a sharp rise in the short term, be patient and wait for the fluctuations to end; the third one requires close attention to the 98000 support level, if it holds, there is no need to panic. Which one do you think is more likely? Let's discuss in the comments!