#美国政府停运 Washington has once again completed that familiar performance before the deadline—Congress and the Senate bickering until the last minute, finally passing a temporary funding bill, allowing the federal government to avoid another shutdown. Treasury officials are probably used to this adrenaline rush, and Wall Street traders are too bored to pay much attention—after all, this script hasn't changed in over a decade.

Since 2013, this has become a nearly annual routine. Every time, budget disagreements and debt ceiling brinkmanship lead to chaos, only to be magically resolved at the last moment with a "handshake." What is this really? Just extending the fuse on a ticking bomb for a few more months.

The truly dangerous numbers are hidden behind the scenes: the fiscal deficit has long surpassed 2 trillion dollars, and the national debt has grown so large that counting zeros is pointless. What did this compromise solve? Nothing. It merely pushed the crisis back in time, waiting for the next deadline to come and for the same drama to play out again.

Market reactions are surprisingly honest. The dollar index slightly dips, gold nudges higher, risk assets breathe a sigh of relief and begin to rebound, and the crypto market also benefits—after all, "crisis averted" sounds better than "immediate collapse."

But smart money knows well: this isn't a positive signal; it's the result of playing the delaying game to the extreme. As the debt snowball grows larger, the Fed's stabilization tricks will eventually fail. The issue isn't whether a crisis will happen, but when it will trigger.

Ultimately, Washington's fiscal tug-of-war is like an endless reality show—viewers know the script, but everyone is waiting for that moment: will it really blow up this time?