## How Long Do Crypto Bull Runs Actually Last? What History Tells Us

Everyone wants to know: when will the next bull run peak? The honest answer? It's messy. But if we dig into the data, some patterns emerge.

### The Track Record

Looking back at Bitcoin's four major bull runs:

- **2010-2011**: 10 months. BTC went from pocket change ($0.05) to $31.91
- **2013**: 12 months. Price target hit $1,242.96
- **2017**: 12 months again. The $19,666 pump that made headlines
- **2020-2021**: The longest so far at 14 months. From $3,867 all the way to $64,804

Pattern? They're stretching. The latest bull run ran 40% longer than the first one.

### What Actually Determines the Duration

It's not just random. Four key forces shape how long the party lasts:

1. **Sentiment shifts** - When headlines go from "crypto is dead" to "FOMO everywhere," that's when things kick off
2. **Chart technicals** - Breakouts, support levels, and resistance zones matter more than people admit
3. **Macro backdrop** - Interest rates, inflation, recession fears—the boring stuff that moves billions
4. **Regulatory moves** - One government announcement can extend or crash a bull run overnight

### The Bottom Line

Historically, expect 10-14 months of upside. But "historically" is doing a lot of work here. Each cycle has unique triggers. Today's market structure (more institutions, more derivatives, more information flow) could compress or extend timelines.

One thing that hasn't changed: bull runs always end. The volatility is the feature, not a bug. Position sizing and risk management still matter more than timing the top.