Bitcoin Could Hit $1M by 2030—Here's the Math Behind It (Not Hype)

Forget the usual “BTC to the moon” nonsense. Bitcoin veteran Mark Moss just broke down a seriously data-backed case for where Bitcoin could be headed, and it’s based on government projections, not Reddit speculation.

The Secret Weapon: Government Budget Data

Moss sat down with Altcoin Daily’s Austin Arnold and revealed something most crypto influencers miss: the U.S. Congressional Budget Office already publishes money supply and debt projections through 2054. That’s right—the government basically told us how much they’re planning to print.

Here’s where it gets interesting. The global “store of value” pool (gold, stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.) is projected to hit $1.6 quadrillion by 2030. If Bitcoin just captures 1.25% of that? Moss’s math spits out $1,000,000 per BTC by 2030.

Not because of memes. Not because celebrities tweeted about it. Because of basic monetary math.

2040 and Beyond: When Bitcoin Gets Boring

The money printer doesn’t stop in 2030. By 2040, that store of value basket could balloon to $3.5 quadrillion. Same 1.25% capture rate? $14,000,000 per Bitcoin.

By 2050, the numbers get even wilder, though Moss didn’t pin down a specific figure. The pattern’s clear though: as long as governments keep expanding debt and money supply, hard assets like Bitcoin benefit.

Moss compared it to Apple stock in the early 2000s. Risky at first, but once the staying power became obvious, the upside was massive.

Why Bitcoin’s Less Risky Now Than in 2015

Moss bought Bitcoin at $300 in 2015. Sounds like a steal, but back then? Legit existential risks. Governments could ban it. Competitors could obsolete it. It might not even survive.

Fast forward. Governments are buying Bitcoin now. Over 170 public companies have BTC on their balance sheets (MicroStrategy, MetaPlanet, etc.). Major institutions treat it like digital gold. The staying power risk? Pretty much gone.

So while the price is way higher, Moss argues the risk-adjusted entry might actually be better today. You’re buying something that’s proven itself, not a grand experiment.

The Real Question Isn’t “Will It Go Up?”

It’s “Will people understand why?”

Bitcoin’s appeal isn’t magic—it’s scarcity in a world of infinite money printing. More dollars chasing the same assets = asset prices go up. Bitcoin has a fixed 21 million supply cap. Gold’s been the benchmark for store of value forever. Now Bitcoin’s finally getting serious institutional recognition.

Moss’s model isn’t a guarantee, obviously. But it reframes Bitcoin from “risky speculation” to “logical response to broken monetary policy.”

The numbers sound insane until you realize how tiny Bitcoin still is compared to global wealth. We’ve already normalized $100k Bitcoin. $1M might feel impossible until suddenly it doesn’t.