ETH/USDT Trading Strategy Analysis (November 17, 2025) ##### 📉 Technical Analysis 1. Price Patterns - The 4-hour chart shows a descending channel, with the recent low of $3,003 (November 16) forming key support. - The head and shoulders pattern is taking shape (right shoulder at $3,240), if it breaks below the neckline at $3,150, it will confirm the downside. 2. Indicator Signals - MACD: DIF and DEA cross below the zero line, increasing bearish momentum. - RSI # 📊 综合结论短期趋势：震荡偏空 关键价位：支撑位 $3,000（心理关口），阻力位 $3,240（24H高点） 操作建议：轻仓观望，突破 $3,240 可试多，跌破 $3,000 需止损。---#1H(: 42 (neutral to weak), not in the oversold zone. - Bollinger Bands: Price is close to the lower band )$3,100(, with the middle band at $3,200 creating pressure. 3. Volume-Price Relationship - Increased volume on the decline (November 16 trading volume of $530 million), decreased volume on the rebound, dominated by bears. - Funding rate at 0.0001 (bulls pay), but open interest decreases (-95,000 ETH), indicating bulls are exiting. ---) 🧩 Fundamentals and Sentiment 1. Bullish Factors - Institutional Accumulation: Bit Digital increased holdings by 31,000 ETH in Q3 (source). - Technical Upgrade: Fusaka upgrade is progressing (source). 2. Bearish Pressures - Regulatory Risks: The US and EU are strengthening regulations on crypto assets (source). - Market Sentiment: Fear and Greed Index at 14 (extreme fear), Long-Short Ratio at 80%:20% (retail investors are bullish but lack momentum). 3. Capital Flow - 24H net inflow of $261 million, mainly flowing into Spot (contract funds are flowing out). ---### ⚠️ Risk Warning 1. Key Events: - Expectations of a Fed rate cut in December cooling down (probability 2. Position Suggestions: - In full position mode, strict stop loss must be maintained (3% below $3,000). - Attention can be given to Bybit structured products (e.g., "Double Win on Rise and Fall") to hedge against fluctuations. ---### 💡 Questions You May Ask 1. Will ETH falling below 3000 trigger a larger sell-off? 2. How to hedge ETH risk using Bybit spread trading? 3. What impact does the Fusaka upgrade have on ETH prices? 4. Is it suitable to dollar-cost average ETH now? 5. How to set up Bybit contract grid strategy for ETH?