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Fed Minutes Show Possible December Rate Cut, Bitcoin Below $89,000.

The newly released minutes of the US Federal Reserve's October 28-29 meeting have heightened uncertainty about the December policy outlook, sharpening market volatility for stocks, bonds, and Bitcoin.

While the minutes reflect the economic data available at the time of the meeting, the change in language in the document has become a new focus for analysts analyzing the Fed's next move.

Fed Minutes: Narrow Majority Against December Rate Cut

The Fed stated that "many" officials believed a December rate cut was "probably not appropriate," while "a few" said a cut "could be quite appropriate."

The hierarchy among Fed observers is significant. "Some" surpasses "a few" and "many" both. This suggests a narrow majority against a December rate cut at the meeting.

This combination has historically generally preceded the end of quantitative tightening. Investor sentiment, therefore, suggests the Fed may end its balance sheet reduction sooner than expected.

Ahead of this announcement, markets had reduced risk, and the price of Bitcoin fell below $89,000 to a seven-month low. The sentiment spread to cryptocurrency stocks and traditional financial indices.

Macro traders say the real story is that the Fed's split is on a knife-edge. The minutes show a lack of consensus, suggesting December is shaping up to be one of the Fed's tightest policy decisions since its inception in its fight against inflation.

Some officials emphasized the risks of still-high inflation; others pointed to cooling labor conditions and declining demand. While both sides are arming themselves with data from the post-meeting period, including soft CPI, stable jobless claims, and cooling retail activity, December could shape itself depending on the two upcoming data releases.

For now, the market is readjusting to a scenario where liquidity tightens, policy uncertainty rises, and Bitcoin remains in a structurally vulnerable zone, and may remain so until buyers regain the initiative.

If the Fed chooses to wait in December, markets will need to brace for a longer-than-expected pause and greater volatility.