#pi #eth #btc #pijs In the crypto space these past few days (since November 18), the crypto market has indeed plunged quite a bit. Bitcoin (BTC) slid all the way down from its early October high of $126,000 to around $82,000, with its total market cap evaporating by over $1 trillion, sending the entire market into a state of "extreme fear" (Fear & Greed Index dropped to 10). Ethereum (ETH) fell over 20%, Solana (SOL) dropped 22%, and meme coins like Dogecoin were cut in half. This isn’t a single event but a “risk asset bloodbath” triggered by multiple factors combined. Below, based on the latest market data and analysis, I break down the main reasons and my views.

1. Macroeconomic Pressure: Fed Rate Cut Expectations Dashed + Liquidity Tightening
Key Point: The market originally bet on a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut in December, but the recent FOMC minutes showed more division within the Fed, and the chances of a rate cut dropped to 30%-40%. This prompted investors to pull out of high-risk assets (like crypto and AI stocks) and move to safe assets. The Nasdaq also plummeted (tech stocks leading declines), and crypto, being a “risk barometer,” was hit first.
Impact: Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq is as high as 0.8. Liquidity has shifted from the loosening in October to tightening (the government shutdown drama further stressed funding). Historically, during similar tightening cycles, like the Fed rate hikes in 2018, BTC fell from $20,000 to $3,000.
Data Support: In the past week, BTC dropped 12.4%, market cap shrank by $161 billion to $2.92 trillion. ae39a79b40c2

2. Institutional Capital Outflows + Profit Taking
Key Point: Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $1.8 billion since November 12, with institutions (like hedge funds) cashing out at the top and moving to safe havens. Coupled with the large-scale liquidations on October 10 (liquidations exceeding $2 billion), market makers’ assets took a hit, thinning order books and drying up liquidity, which amplified the drop.
Impact: Selling pressure was heaviest during the US trading session (Coinbase BTC premium index turned negative, showing US households/institutions selling), while the Asian session was relatively stable (only dropped 2%). This isn’t “crypto-specific,” but a global deleveraging.
Data Support: In the past six weeks, total crypto market cap evaporated by $1.2 trillion; BTC ETFs saw five consecutive days of net redemptions. b72a07a1e345b9b9c3

3. Technical and Sentiment Collapse: AI Bubble Fears + Historical Patterns Repeat
Key Point: BTC broke below the 50-week moving average (death cross signal), triggering technical selling. Combined with panic over the AI stock bubble (market overly reliant on a handful of tech giants), investors lost faith in speculative assets overall. On X, there’s heated discussion about “10/10 liquidation aftershocks” and “market exhaustion,” with sentiment shifting from greed to fear.
Impact: Altcoins were hit even harder (down an average of 30%), BTC dominance rose above 60% (funds fleeing to “relatively safe” BTC). Binance CEO Richard Teng said this volatility is now on par with traditional assets (like stocks), and not unique to crypto.
Data Support: BTC is down 33% from its all-time high; historically, each time it corrected over 33%, it continued to fall further (except in 2021); November could be the worst month since 2018. ed2edfdf01502c522cd8caae

My View: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Bull Market Intact
Short-term: This is a typical “bull market correction,” similar to the 56% BTC and 62% ETH drop over four weeks in 2021, followed by a V-shaped rebound to new ATHs. Currently oversold (RSI < 20), but selling pressure isn’t over (may test 85k support). Suggest not to chase shorts, mainly HODL. On X, Raoul Pal also said: “The macro backdrop remains positive; this too shall pass.”
Long-term: Pro-crypto policy from Trump (new SEC Chair Paul Atkins) + corporate BTC accumulation (MicroStrategy added 8,178 BTC this week) remain bullish. Historically, bull markets see an average of seven 30%+ corrections for BTC, so this 33% isn’t extreme. The AI/DeFi narrative is hurt, but stablecoins/RWA are growing strongly, and a rebound is expected in 2026.
Advice: Diversify risk, don’t go all-in with leverage; watch the Fed meeting in December. If you’re a newbie, avoid FOMO (fear of missing out), and focus on on-chain data (like Glassnode). Markets always have ups and downs—surviving makes you a winner.