**AI chip boom, US stocks rise and fall**

The S&P 500 rose 0.36% on Monday, while the Nasdaq 100 hit a record high with a rise of 0.78%——AMD was the biggest winner, soaring 23%! The reason is that this chip giant just signed a major deal with OpenAI: deploying 6GW of AMD GPUs and also received 160 million stock options.

This wave of operations has ignited the entire AI infrastructure sector. Companies like Supermicro, Palantir, ARM, and Applied Materials have all followed suit with rises of 2-5%. The logic on Wall Street is straightforward: AI spending → chip demand → corporate profits ↑. Over 22% of companies in the S&P 500 have provided Q3 earnings guidance, expecting to beat analyst predictions.

Interestingly, Nvidia fell by 1% - being hit hard by this large order from AMD.

On the other hand, Bitcoin is also joining the fun. The rising risk aversion (with the government shutdown entering its second week and political uncertainty in Europe and Japan) has pushed BTC to break through the historical high of $126,000, with an increase of over 2%. Crypto concept stocks are also taking off—Coinbase, Galaxy Digital, Marathon, and others have all risen by over 1%.

The bond market is a bit cold. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 4.16%, putting pressure on government bond prices. However, if the economy weakens due to a government shutdown, the bond market may rebound.

Next week's highlights: FOMC minutes ( Wednesday ), Powell's speech ( Thursday ), Michigan Consumer Confidence Index ( Friday ). The market has priced in a 95% probability of a 25bp rate cut by the FOMC on October 28-29.