Ford Q3 Beats Expectations But Cuts Full-Year Outlook Over Supply Chain Hit

Ford just dropped Q3 earnings and it’s a mixed bag. The automaker crushed estimates on EPS (45 cents vs 38 cents expected) and revenue ($50.5B, up 9.3% YoY), but there’s a catch—management slashed full-year EBIT guidance to $6-6.5B from the prior $6.5-7.5B range.

Why the Downgrade?

The Novelis plant fire is the culprit. Ford’s taking a hit on aluminum supply, which is critical for EV production. This cascading effect forced them to cut free cash flow guidance from $3.5-4.5B to just $2-3B—a brutal 40%+ haircut compared to 2024’s $6.7B.

The Segment Breakdown

Ford Blue (the legacy ICE business) is still the cash cow:

• 733K units sold (+2% YoY), crushing expectations
• $28B revenue with $1.54B EBIT margin at 5.5%
• Basically keeping the company afloat

Ford Model e (EV segment) is hemorrhaging:

• 50K units (-12% miss vs. expectations)
• $1.8B revenue but -$1.4B operating loss
• The EV transition is expensive, and it shows

Ford Pro (commercial vehicles) holding steady:

• 373K units, 11.4% EBIT margin
• Still the healthiest segment, but slightly missed volume targets

How Does It Stack Up?

Tesla’s Q3 EPS (50 cents) slightly beat Ford, but Tesla’s revenue growth (+12% YoY) is outpacing Detroit. GM also posted solid Q3 earnings ($2.80 vs $2.28 consensus), suggesting traditional automakers are fighting to keep up with margin pressure.

The Real Story

Ford’s problem isn’t demand—it’s supply chain fragility and the brutal cost of EV transition. With $26.8B cash on hand but only $2-3B expected free cash flow, the company’s got breathing room but needs to fix Model e’s losses fast. The Novelis situation exposed just how vulnerable the auto industry’s supply chain remains.