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If we turn again to the theory of cycles.
It’s likely the peak was reached on October 6—slightly earlier than the forecasted November–December range, but overall it fits the pattern.
Of course, I’d like to see a new ATH by the end of December, but right now the likelihood of that is practically zero.
The optimal point for opening new positions, in my view, could be the end of 2026.
Imagine rates continue to decrease, but the economy still goes down—markets fall.
To restart the printing press and drop rates nearly to zero again, a powerful shock is needed. One that would even more sharply crash the markets in the moment. Only after that would a slow, gradual recovery begin. This takes time, and late 2026 fits this scenario well.
But all of this isn’t the main thing.
Each of us will find a thousand and one arguments in favor of our own position. If you’re in the market, you’ll see signals for growth. If you’re outside the market, you’ll see evidence of decline. That’s normal; that’s how our brains work. And what will actually happen—no one knows.
Right now, I’m gradually selling off my positions, because I can’t handle it emotionally anymore. My current losses are still acceptable, but if they fall another -50%, that will be critical. So I want to move into stables and watch the market from the sidelines for a bit.
You need to have the courage to admit mistakes and get rid of assets you no longer believe in.
Still, there are assets I continue to see as promising in the long term. I plan to start accumulating them again in the next cycle:
$BTC , $ETH , $ZEC
Although sometimes I think: maybe it’s better not to overcomplicate things and just stick to BTC and ETH? In this cycle, hardly anyone outperformed Bitcoin’s returns—why should that suddenly change in the next one?$BTC ‌$ETH ‌