Is Pump Fun just a fleeting "cyclical product," or is it the next on-chain super app for consumer adoption?

Written by: Michael Nadeau, The Defi Report

Translated by: Glendon, Techub News

In less than two years, Pump Fun has achieved remarkable results, generating nearly $900 million in revenue and nearly $200 million in token buybacks, giving us a glimpse into the possible future form of “consumer-grade cryptocurrency.”

In this week’s report, we’ll dive deep into the data behind its growth, compare its core metrics with those from the market frenzy in Q1 of this year, and explore whether Pump is a flash-in-the-pan “cyclical product” or the beginning of the first true on-chain consumer super app.

Fundamentals Update

Active Traders

Pump Fun currently earns fees mainly through two channels.

Bonding Curve Fees

Pump charges a 1% protocol fee on all Bonding Curve trades. The Bonding Curve is where new tokens are traded before they “graduate” to the Pump Swap DEX.

“Graduation” refers to a token issued on the Bonding Curve (which accounts for 80% of the supply) selling out and having enough liquidity to migrate to Pump Swap DEX. This process is called “graduation.”

In the past 90 days, the Bonding Curve has averaged 106,000 active addresses per day—a 60% decrease from Q1 this year (the peak of Pump/Solana frenzy).

Pump Swap DEX

Pump Swap DEX is the platform where tokens migrate to after “graduating” from the Bonding Curve. The protocol earns a 0.05% commission fee on every trade on the DEX.

In the past 90 days, this DEX has averaged 219,000 active addresses per day.

New vs. Returning Traders

In the past 90 days, 37% of trading addresses were new, and 63% were “returning” addresses—mirroring the user dynamics since Pump’s inception (during the Q1 frenzy peak, “new addresses” accounted for 36%).

User Retention

However, recent 12-week user retention data reveals some interesting results.

Since early September, Pump has averaged 482,000 weekly active addresses. Its average weekly user retention rate is 24%.

New user retention drops to 12.4% after 4 weeks and 11.4% after 8 weeks.

Key Takeaways

Although these retention rates may not seem impressive, they are actually outstanding compared to Web2 platforms:

Market/Fintech platforms have first-week retention rates of 10-15%; Gaming apps have one-week player retention rates of 7-12%; Consumer social media one-week retention rates are 15-20%; All categories have fourth-week retention rates of 5-10%; All categories have eighth-week retention rates of 2-5%.

What about bots?

Web2 bot traffic often inflates “top of funnel” metrics (due to spam clicks, registrations, and ad traffic), distorting user retention rates.

On-chain bots behave differently.

Bots repeatedly transact. They can disregard price. They show up in “returning user” metrics.

Simply put: bots are also paying customers.

Given that current data is far from the frenzy seen in Q1, these figures suggest that the product fits market demand. We’ll keep a close eye on this, especially as on-chain sentiment declines.

Token Issuance

In the past 90 days, the Pump project has averaged 18,300 token launches per day, down 55% from Q1.

Token “Graduation” Rate

In the past 90 days, 1.77% of new tokens on Pump Fun ultimately “graduated” to Pump Swap DEX (in the past 30 days, this rate has jumped to 4.1%).

Key Takeaways

During the Q1 market frenzy, only an average of 1.07% of tokens successfully launched. As on-chain speculation cools, we seem to be seeing higher-quality token launches. This is noteworthy—especially as interest in Memecoins gradually fades.

Trading Volume

On the Bonding Curve and Pump Swap DEX, the protocol has averaged $312 million in daily trading volume over the past 90 days. This is up 16.4% from Q1 (when Pump Swap was not yet live), accounting for a 10.8% market share on Solana (including private AMMs).

For reference, the leading Solana DEX (HumidiFi, a private DEX) averaged $1.24 billion in trading volume over the past 90 days.

Bonding Curve volume accounts for about 40% of total Pump token trading volume. Considering that less than 2% of tokens make it to Pump Swap DEX but contribute 60% of the volume, this is quite interesting.

Revenue

Since its inception, Pump Fun has generated:

$828 million in Bonding Curve fees (launched in April 2024) $54.5 million in DEX fees (launched in March 2025) On October 24, Pump acquired trading app/terminal Padre, generating $11.2 million in revenue from it. Since its launch in April this year, Padre has generated $159 million in fees.

In the past 30 days, these three products have averaged a combined $1.28 million in daily fees. In a bear market, this is quite impressive. The protocol’s total revenue over the past 19 months is approaching $900 million. Its price-to-sales (P/S) ratio over the past 12 months is 2.27. (Techub News note: P/S ratio = price per share/sales per share; the lower the P/S ratio, the greater the company’s investment value.)

For reference, Meta’s P/S ratio over the past 12 months is 8.83, Nvidia’s is 23, Robinhood’s is 29, and Coinbase’s is 10.

Key Takeaways

Pump Fun is one of the fastest consumer products ever to reach $900 million in revenue. Facebook took five years to reach this level, Snapchat five years, Twitter eight years, Roblox ten years, and TikTok only three years.

What’s more, Pump Fun achieved this with no advertising, no sales team, no user acquisition budget, and a team smaller than a high school basketball squad.

By Web2 standards, this is almost unbelievable. It highlights how application developers can leverage crypto to reach global users at lightning speed.

So, the key question becomes: Will Memecoins be a flash in the pan like NFTs? Will Pump Fun meet the same fate as OpenSea?

Tokenomics

Total supply: 999,989,313,535 tokens Circulating supply: 590,000,000,000 tokens (about 59% circulating)

Price and Market Cap

The chart above is shared to emphasize the challenges that token unlocks pose to investors during a bear market. Pump’s market cap has dropped 46% from its mid-September peak, and the token price is down 67%.

Why? On November 12, 2 billion community and ecosystem tokens were unlocked.

Token Allocation

Token Unlocks

ICO: Fully unlocked. Community: 76% unlocked, with 2 billion tokens released in mid-November. Remaining tokens to unlock in July 2026. Team: 100% locked. First 25% to unlock via “cliff” in June 2026. Remaining tokens to unlock linearly over 36 months until June 2029. (“Cliff” unlock: a large amount of previously locked tokens is released all at once or in a short period after the lockup period ends.) Existing Investors: 100% locked. First 25% unlocks via “cliff” in June 2026. Remaining tokens unlock linearly over 36 months until June 2029. This schedule matches the team’s unlock timeline. Streaming Hosts: 100% unlocked. Liquidity and Trading: 100% unlocked. Ecosystem Fund: 100% unlocked. Foundation: 100% unlocked.

Buybacks

Total buyback: 46,024,318,185 tokens (about 4.6% of total supply) Total buyback amount: $198 million (90% of income since buybacks began in July)

This is one of the most aggressive buyback programs in crypto. Such large-scale buybacks prove that Pump is:

A real business with actual cash flow; A structural buyer in the market (averaging $1.7 million/day); Committed to returning value to token holders and aligning incentives.

Token Holder Distribution

Total token holder addresses: 110,900 Addresses holding fewer than 1,000 tokens (worth $3): 59,927 Addresses holding 1,000–10,000 tokens ($3–$30): 24,701 Addresses holding 10,000–100,000 tokens ($30–$300): 16,461 Addresses holding 100,000–1,000,000 tokens ($300–$3,000): 7,039 Addresses holding 1,000,000–10,000,000 tokens ($3,000–$30,000): 2,149 Addresses holding 10,000,000–100,000,000 tokens ($30,000–$300,000): 553 Addresses holding 100,000,000–1,000,000,000 tokens ($300,000–$3,000,000): 174 Addresses holding over 1,000,000,000 tokens (over $3,000,000): 54

Key Takeaways

91% of PUMP token-holding wallets have less than $300, indicating high retail participation, even though these holdings account for only a small portion of total supply.

Only 9% of wallets hold more than $300 in PUMP. The top 20 holders control 82% of the token supply. The author believes these are mostly team members and early investors, whose tokens will be locked until July 2026—a key date to watch, as $246 million worth of tokens will enter the market then.

Final Thoughts

The rise of Pump Fun in recent years is one of the best examples of product-market fit in crypto, driven by speed, simplicity, and speculation. A small team, with no ads, no sales organization, and no traditional marketing, has built one of the fastest-growing consumer apps in history.

Product Integration

The team can deliver products rapidly and has strategically integrated its tech stack vertically (creator-facing token launch interface + Pump Swap DEX infrastructure + Padre trading terminal), indicating a clear goal to control the entire user flow for “crypto consumer” use cases.

The author believes that as the team seeks to attract creators through livestream use cases and expand its “social experience,” the app will continue to evolve over the coming years—potentially drawing creators from other Web2 platforms (offering better monetization opportunities via tokens and trading fees).

Risks

Pump Fun faces key risks: high token concentration among top wallets (with $247 million unlocking next July); a young (and wealthy) leadership team; and the huge challenge of maintaining user attention in a high-churn environment.

Competition will intensify, but Pump’s brand strength, capital reserves, and first-mover advantage are crucial.

Ultimately, Pump Fun’s success or failure hinges on whether the Memecoin asset class succeeds. The author believes Memecoins will be around for the long term, and their use cases, real utility, and deep integration with online social experiences are just beginning.

Fair launches that can attract legitimate creator participation and build innovative value-sharing models with fans are key. We look forward to real progress in these areas, and hope to see effective user protection against malicious sniping and market manipulation.

Finally, the author believes this bear market may provide many clues to Pump Fun’s future prospects, making it a must-watch project.