The latest survey data released by the New York Fed reveals an intriguing contradictory signal—American households are growing more worried about their wallets, but their confidence in the job market is rebounding.

Let’s start with the pessimistic side. In November, respondents’ assessment of their current financial situation “deteriorated significantly,” and their expectations for the next year also “slightly worsened.” This sense of anxiety is very real: although overall inflation expectations remain moderate (one-year at 3.2%, three- and five-year both steady at 3%), expected medical costs surged to 10.1%—the highest since January 2014. As for home prices? Still expected to rise 3%, and there’s little change in other major commodity prices.

Now for the optimistic side. Job market expectations are improving: concerns about rising unemployment have eased, and the perceived likelihood of losing one’s job within the next year is at its lowest since December 2024. Interestingly, the probability of quitting voluntarily has also dropped—which suggests people aren’t as optimistic about job-hopping opportunities, but at least they’re not afraid of losing their jobs.

As for income expectations? Outlook for future wage growth remains positive.

What does this data mean for the markets? Stable inflation expectations may give the Fed some relief, but rising household financial stress is still a concern. For the crypto market, this kind of macroeconomic divergence is worth keeping an eye on.