Bitcoin is a severely undervalued asymmetric investment opportunity — Perspective from a veteran Wall Street investor

Source: BlockMedia
Original Title: “Bitcoin: The Most Mispriced Bet… Absurdly Undervalued”—Jordi Visser
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30-Year Wall Street Veteran’s Bitcoin Analysis

Veteran investor Jordi Visser, in his recently shared paper “Future Win Rate Analysis,” argues that Bitcoin is the “most mispriced bet” of his career. He applies horse racing probability analysis techniques learned from his father to Bitcoin, believing that the current market severely underestimates Bitcoin’s value.

“The win rate is 3 to 1, but the market prices it at 100 to 1”

Visser defines the essence of investing as “seeking value” rather than “picking winners.” Since the age of five, he accompanied his father to the racetrack, learning to spot the gap between public odds and actual win rates.

According to his analysis, Bitcoin’s true win rate is about 3 to 1 (risk-reward ratio of about 25-33%), but the smartest wealthy people he knows price it at 100 to 1, or even consider it worthless. This enormous gap presents a rare “asymmetric opportunity” in his professional career. Just as Charlie Munger likened the stock market to a “mutual betting” system, price is determined not by intrinsic value but by the flow of capital. The capital pool allocated to Bitcoin is negligible compared to traditional assets.

“The wealthy dislike Bitcoin… That’s exactly where the opportunity lies”

Visser cites macroeconomic masters Stan Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones: “Position sizing is more important than fundamentals.”

He notes that mentioning Bitcoin at a Wall Street dinner is treated like discussing politics or religion. The older, more traditionally financially educated, and wealthier someone is, the less likely they are to own Bitcoin or they may think it’s a scam.

From Druckenmiller’s perspective, this represents a “good idea with no position,” which is precisely the most attractive investment moment. The fact that Bitcoin is absent from the portfolios of the world’s capital-controlling wealthy itself implies explosive potential buy-side demand.

“Bitcoin is the purest AI-era trade”

Visser redefines Bitcoin as not just digital gold but as an asset with a “conviction moat” in the AI era.

He analyzes that as AI technology develops, companies’ “competitive advantage moats” will erode faster, as better code and algorithms will destroy existing businesses. Thus, investing in traditional growth stocks will become increasingly difficult.

In contrast, Bitcoin is an asset that transcends technological innovation, reinforced by “social belief” and “network effects.” He argues that as AI accelerates, currency devaluation will intensify, and Bitcoin’s conviction moat will only grow stronger.

“Don’t go all in… 3-5% is the new standard”

Visser advises confidence without recklessness. Even with a 3 to 1 edge, you should never bet your entire fortune. He emphasizes adjusting allocation based on age, investment horizon, and financial obligations.

He notes that a leading asset management firm and major banks are allocating 3-5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin, making this the new standard. As AI makes future cash flow predictions harder, institutional investors have no choice but to increase their allocation to Bitcoin as a “growth asset.”

In conclusion, Visser states that the masses will eventually come, but by then the odds (price) will be vastly different from today. This underscores that true investing is about placing bets when others don’t see the opportunity.