#ETH Intraday Analysis

1️⃣ Structural Interpretation: Ethereum's trend is relatively strong. Although its short-term movement is influenced by BTC, if Bitcoin plunges, Ethereum won't be able to remain unaffected. Here, we need to closely monitor Bitcoin's trend.
2️⃣ Capital Flows & On-chain & Exchange Dynamics
- Capital Flows (short-term divergence): ETF funds have seen short-term outflows. As of the week ending December 6, US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a net outflow of $65.4 million. This contrasts with inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, indicating that some short-term funds are reallocating.
- On-chain Data (core advantage): The network fundamentals are extremely strong. The widespread adoption of Ethereum Layer-2 has compressed median network transaction fees to near zero, greatly improving user experience. More importantly, its quarterly stablecoin transfer volume has approached $6 trillion, surpassing traditional payment networks like Visa, highlighting its immense utility as a global settlement layer.
- Institutional Moves: Despite ETF outflows, well-known analysts such as Tom Lee from Fundstrat have continued to increase ETH holdings during the market downturn, indicating divergent views among institutional investors and recognition of its long-term value.
3️⃣ Intraday Trading Strategy: Long opportunities in the 2940-2908 range. If there are clear bullish candlestick signals in this area (such as hammer, bullish breakout after small-bodied consolidation), it can be considered a relatively safe long entry, with stop loss set below 2908. If this level breaks, then watch for long opportunities in the 2800-2720 range.
4️⃣ Risk Warning
- Broader Market Drag Risk: If BTC sees a sharp technical breakdown due to macro bearish factors, ETH will be hard-pressed to remain unaffected, and its key support levels will face serious tests.
- Technical Breakdown Risk: If the daily close price decisively breaks below the key 2700-2800 support range, it may destroy the short-term bullish structure and trigger a deeper pullback.
- Sector Rotation Risk: Market hotspots are currently focused on RWA, Meme, and other segments, which may divert funds that could otherwise flow into ETH.