Breaking: Ongoing conflict at the Thailand-Cambodia border, with slow response from niche prediction markets

According to Mars Finance, on December 9, PolyBeats monitoring reported that unverified footage surfaced yesterday on Cambodian Telegram and Facebook channels showing Thai F-16 fighter jets launching airstrikes on Cambodian targets. Subsequently, the Thai military confirmed that after a border conflict resulted in the death of a Thai soldier, Thailand carried out a “retaliatory strike.” This news directly caused the probability in the prediction market “Will Thailand attack Cambodia before December 31?” to surge from 28% within a two-hour window between 8 AM and 10 AM yesterday, after which the market settled as “Yes.”

Due to the rapid escalation of the geopolitical conflict, Polymarket opened a new market an hour ago: “Will Thailand attack Cambodia on December 9?” This market offers daily settlements, but initial trading volume was extremely low. Shortly after the market launch, new footage and reports emerged online: the Bangkok Post posted on social media that the Royal Thai Army confirmed an F-16 fighter jet had destroyed a casino used by Cambodia as a drone control station, and the air force is currently targeting rocket bases threatening Thai communities.

Influenced by this news, the December 9 option surged from 37% to 62% within one hour. Due to low trading volume, the market has not yet settled.