The rate cut last December was already the third one of the year. The market had fully digested the expectations, and prices had already reacted accordingly.

But the wave in mid-September this year was different—it had been almost a year since the last cut, which meant the liquidity tap was about to be turned on again. So you saw prices surge to new highs after the pullback; the logic was straightforward.

The one at the end of October was awkward, though, landing just half a month after October 11. Liquidity was already tight, and subsequent policies were unclear, so the drop was actually quite normal.

As for this December? I’m not that optimistic. Right now, the market is betting on two things: whether the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates and whether QE will restart. In this kind of tug-of-war, don’t expect a one-sided market.