#美联储重启降息步伐 $ETH

Last Sprint Before the Fed Decision: What Does On-Chain Data Reveal?

Everyone, I’ve taken a close look at some macro data and on-chain information and found some interesting signals. The market generally expects a nearly 90% probability of a Fed rate cut, but what’s truly worth watching is the voting split and the dot plot’s stance—if a hawkish signal is released, BTC could pull back to around 38,000. That sounds scary, but in a historical context, this is a typical setup opportunity.

What’s even more interesting is the on-chain data. In the past 72 hours, whales have aggressively scooped up 120,000 ETH, the premium rate has surged to 15%, and the premium index on major platforms has turned positive. The buying momentum far exceeds the early stages of the 2023 bull market. Institutions are buying the dip like crazy—this signal is way more solid than any press release—it shows they’re already positioning ahead of time, and the engine is igniting.

History’s pattern is quite interesting: in 2019, when the Fed turned from hawkish to dovish, it directly triggered that bull run. The logic is pretty much the same this time—even if the dot plot comes out hawkish, the pullback is essentially a great opportunity to go heavy. My view is that if BTC holds 42,000, that’s a signal to enter, targeting 50,000; if it breaks (though that’s highly unlikely), set a short-term stop loss, but hold for the mid-term—the on-chain fundamentals are solid.

As for ETH, just follow the whales’ lead. Institutions are accumulating at the bottom, retail investors are hesitating, and this kind of misalignment often breeds the biggest opportunities. Keep a close eye on the 42,000 level tonight.