Just saw a noteworthy signal—real-time data from a certain prediction platform shows that the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in December has already soared to 90%.

Even more interesting, the probability of “keeping rates unchanged” is now down to just 10%. The total trading volume for this prediction event has already exceeded $210 million, so there’s quite a bit of real money being put on the line.

Honestly, this level of betting is pretty rare. For market sentiment to shift this quickly, traders must have sensed something. After all, every Fed policy adjustment directly affects global capital flows.

If a rate cut really happens, what impact will it have on crypto and the stock market? Historically, rate cuts usually push up risk asset prices, but will it be different this time? The current macro environment is so different from before.

Bitcoin’s recent price action has actually been reflecting some of these expectations already. But then again, market predictions are one thing—what the Fed actually decides will still depend on inflation data and employment numbers.

What do you all think of this move? Do you think this 90% probability is reliable?