Rate cuts might really be coming.

Trump has recently started pressuring Fed Chair Powell to cut rates again, even citing the words of JPMorgan's CEO as a shield. It’s rare to see a president personally step in like this. Looking at CME’s FedWatch data—the probability of a December rate cut has soared to 89.2%, basically a done deal. Even more dramatic, there’s now a 25.7% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by January.

The numbers are right there, and market sentiment is definitely heating up. But here’s the interesting part: everyone is betting on a rate cut happening, but the question is—where should the money go?

Traditional markets have already priced in a lot: bond yields are very low, and stock valuations are hovering at highs. This is when crypto assets become attractive—the expectation of loose liquidity is exactly the scenario Bitcoin and Ethereum love. Historically, every rate-cutting cycle has seen the crypto market start to stir several months in advance.

Of course, whether this round will really take off depends on a few variables: Will the Fed “fake it” and only cut by 25 basis points? Will the dollar index unexpectedly strengthen after the rate cut? And most crucially—has the market already priced in everything?

If you believe in the “buy the rumor, sell the news” trading logic, this is indeed a delicate moment. But then again, last year a lot of people were calling for a “rate cut bull market,” yet the Fed held out until now before softening its stance. So don’t just focus on the probability numbers—pay attention to on-chain capital flows and whale moves; those signals might be more telling.

This end-of-year rally will either be a wealth frenzy or yet another case of “failed expectations.” What’s your take?