$ETH $BTC Is the Bank of Japan serious this time? Probability of a rate hike surges to 85%

That sharp market drop yesterday doesn't seem so baseless now. The chances of the Bank of Japan raising rates in December have soared from a coin flip to 85%.

More importantly, Governor Ueda has made a complete 180 in his statements. Previously, he was concerned about external economic risks, but now the focus is directly on domestic inflation pressure and the continued depreciation of the yen. What does this signal mean? The world's last "free money pool" is about to shut its doors.

For the crypto market, the impact is far from minor. In recent years, many institutions and big players have borrowed low-interest yen to allocate to high-risk assets like Bitcoin—a strategy known as "yen carry trade." Now that costs are set to rise, this hot money will naturally recalculate, and a significant portion will likely choose to pull out. Simply put, funds are being drained from the highly volatile crypto pool. Yesterday’s crash was, in a way, the market pricing in this expectation.

So what should retail investors do now?

First, let go of wishful thinking: this isn’t just a short-term market fluctuation; it’s a turning point in the macro cycle. In the coming period, the market will have to gradually digest the fact that "the era of cheap Japanese money is ending," and volatility will probably become the new normal.

Control your position risk: When liquidity starts tightening, high leverage is like swimming naked at low tide—risks are magnified exponentially.

Keep an eye on key support levels: For example, Bitcoin’s $75,000 bull-bear dividing line, and the Fed’s policy moves. In the chess game of central banks, you need to identify where the real line of defense lies.

Bottom line, the rules of the game are changing. The era of easy wins fueled by money printing may be over; now, you need to learn to find opportunities and manage risk in a declining liquidity environment. The market is always changing, but only those who survive get to talk about making money.