My current view is that this pullback might be the last test. There's a reason why the 80,000 level held up before, and those factors are still valid now.



However, there's one thing that makes me a bit uneasy—the BTC monthly chart. The left shoulder and head have already formed. If it really follows the head and shoulders top pattern, we might see a rebound at the start of the year, pushing up to around 100,000. But if it can't break the previous high, a large-scale top formation will be set. Once that happens, it's basically game over, and we'll enter a prolonged correction period.

Of course, it's still too early to talk about next year—there are too many variables.

For now, my judgment is as follows:

First, on the weekly level, there's a high probability of a double bottom, likely to test the November low of 80,600, or even dip below it briefly. But even if it breaks, it should bounce back quickly. After this test, the Christmas rally should be able to start.

Second, from the end of the year to early next year, I expect a rebound to 105,000 or even higher.

Let’s wait and see—I'll check later to see if my predictions were accurate.
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DefiSecurityGuardvip
· 59m ago
ngl the head and shoulders pattern on the monthly is giving me serious vibes... like this could legitimately be the top if we can't break through. seen this movie before, doesn't end well. 80600 retest sounds about right though, probably the final capitulation before santa rally hits different this year.
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TokenRationEatervip
· 12-09 19:36
Head and shoulders top... to be honest, it's a bit scary. I'm just worried that at the start of the year we'll see a fake breakout and then a sharp reversal down. If the monthly chart can't break the previous high, it'll go straight into a long adjustment period. Fine, I'll just lay flat and wait.
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ChainPoetvip
· 12-09 19:36
The head and shoulders top pattern is really a bit scary, but the 80,000 level has held up pretty well. If it rebounds to 100,000 and can't break through, then we’ll just have to admit defeat. We'll see what happens then.
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YieldChaservip
· 12-09 19:35
The head and shoulders top pattern is indeed a bit scary, but I still trust the 80,000 support line. But honestly, if it really breaks the previous high and enters a correction phase... then what else is there to say? Let's see if the Christmas rally can turn things around.
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TokenVelocityvip
· 12-09 19:32
If the head and shoulders top pattern forms, it’s really going to be tough, but I still have more confidence in the 80,000 support level. If the key previous high at 100,000 isn’t broken through, it’s going to be a problem. Let’s wait for the Christmas rally first. Whether this wave can be pulled back depends on the monthly chart—I really don’t have much confidence. Anyway, let’s see if the weekly chart tests the level for a second time. Whether 80,600 holds or not is the watershed.
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TrustMeBrovip
· 12-09 19:31
The head and shoulders top pattern is really a psychological barrier; you have to overcome it. If the monthly chart can't break the previous high, is it over? Let's see if it can get back to 100,000 first. Whether 80,000 can hold is the key; that's the real test. To put it nicely, it's a test; to put it bluntly, it's a shakeout. Either way, I'm not moving. Christmas rally? Ha, it's the same old story. If it's going to rebound, let it rebound. Predicting early next year now is too much; I'm only looking at what can happen next week.
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DefiPlaybookvip
· 12-09 19:27
The monthly head and shoulders pattern... to be honest, it looks a bit risky. Based on recent on-chain data trends, the probability of a breakdown is indeed not low. However, the strength of the support at 80,600 is worth watching. According to historical pullback patterns, the rebound strength after a second bottom test often reaches between 78% and 85% of the expected high.
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ProveMyZKvip
· 12-09 19:20
The head and shoulders top really creates a psychological shadow. Once it forms, it just never ends... But I still tend to believe that 80,000 can hold. This round is the final struggle before the end.
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