Tonight, Powell chose complete silence. Nothing was said about the economy or interest rates.

But this silence actually makes people even more uneasy. Because next week’s Federal Reserve FOMC meeting may be brewing a surprise.

Traders have already voted with real money—the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next week is close to 90%. The numbers are clear, but what really makes the market nervous isn’t the cut itself. It’s the “dot plot.” The Fed’s forecast for the interest rate path through 2026 is hidden in that chart.

Why is the market so anxious?

First, the less that’s said, the more it suggests something is up. Such extreme avoidance often means the decision makers are still fiercely debating, or the outcome may exceed conventional expectations.

Second, beware the trap of a “hawkish cut.” Yes, rates may be cut, but what if the dot plot hints at a slower pace or even a pause in the future? The market could instantly reverse. What the market fears most is this kind of “giving and then taking back” move.

Third, the liquidity turning point may really be here. The Fed has just stopped its balance sheet reduction, and there are subtle changes happening in global liquidity conditions.

For the crypto market, this is a critical moment. Expectations of rate cuts will boost risk appetite, and major coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum typically benefit. But any unexpected hawkish signals could trigger violent volatility.

Smart money is already positioning in advance. Next week, it’s all about who can guess the Fed’s true intentions.