December Fed meeting's coming up fast—what's the play?

Nearly everyone's betting on a 25 basis point cut. Prediction markets are showing 95% odds, and basically every major bank's calling the same move. But here's the twist: people are labeling it a "hawkish cut." That means rate drops, sure, but the messaging stays tight.

The dot plot? Barely budged from September's version. Translation: policymakers aren't racing to ease aggressively despite the cut. They're threading the needle—loosening just enough without signaling a full dovish pivot.

For risk assets, this setup matters. A cut typically juices sentiment, but hawkish commentary could cap the rally. Watch the presser closely—Powell's tone might matter more than the rate decision itself.